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You guys are actually getting the longer version of this column. I had to cut this considerably in order for every game to fit on the amount of space I was given on my pages.
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So the first week of the bowl season did nothing for you? Well, as Terrell Owens would say, "Get your popcorn ready."
The first marquee matchup of the bowl season occurs at 7 p.m. tonight when the No. 17 Texas Longhorns and No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils meet in San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.
The Longhorns are playing in their ninth consecutive bowl game and have won five of their last six postseason contests, including three straight. However, the last time Texas lost a bowl game was at the 2003 Holiday Bowl when Washington State handed the Longhorns a 28-20 defeat.
Texas' last three bowl wins have been decided by three points or less. In 2004, Vince Young put his name on the national radar with an incredible performance in a 38-37 win over Michigan.
Of course, no one who watched the 2005 BCS Championship game between the Longhorns and USC will never forget Young's encore for the grandaddy of them all. Young scored in the final minute of the game, clinching the 41-38 win and a national title for Texas — its first since 1969.
Two years later, the Longhorns aren't playing in a BCS bowl for the second-consecutive season. Last year, they narrowly defeated an Iowa team they greatly outmatched talent-wise.
Playing down to their opponent has been a theme for the Longhorns' 2007 season. They have allowed notably inferior teams such as Arkansas St., Central Florida and Nebraska to hang in till the end. Texas also took a drubbing to a 6-6 Kansas St. squad and lost to a disappointing Texas A&M team two years in a row.
Head Coach Mack Brown is guilty of falling in love with a spread offensive system without the proper personnel to run it. I have defended quarterback Colt McCoy in this space several times over the season. If it wasn't for McCoy, the Longhorns would've lost to Arkansas St., TCU and UCF, meaning they would've started the season 0-3.
Unfortunately for McCoy, Brown appears immune to taking any heat for the Longhorns' struggles. McCoy doesn't fit the system Young ran. Brown needs to overcome his love with this offense and go back to the more run-oriented offense used when Cedric Benson was in the backfield.
Junior tailback Jamaal Charles is every bit as talented as Benson and is the most explosive offensive weapon Texas has. The Longhorns need to utilize him in order to defeat the Sun Devils.
However, Arizona St. won't make that easy. The Sun Devils boast the 13th ranked defense to along with the bitter feeling of being left out of the BCS.
Despite being ranked higher than Illinois in the BCS poll, Arizona St. was left out of one of the higher paying bowl games, largely due to the Rose Bowl's insistence to honor tradition.
I can understand the Sun Devils' bitterness. Forget tradition, USC and Illinois is not going to be a very competitive game. It will probably be the most lopsided of all BCS bowls with USC holding a decisive advantage. The Big 10 was a weak conference and in no way deserved to have two teams selected for the BCS bowls.
Obviously, Arizona St. wouldn't have been rematched with USC in the Rose Bowl, but the Sun Devils could have easily been put in the Fiesta Bowl, guaranteeing a large pull for the Tempe, Ariz., game. Then, Oklahoma or West Virginia could've been moved to the Rose Bowl to take on USC. Who wouldn't rather see Oklahoma and USC play on New Year's Day anyway?
However, the schedule is set and instead, we're treated to a matchup featuring two of the better run defenses in the country. It also features two of the worst pass defenses in the nation.
That's where the x-factor for this game lies — which team can make less mistakes and more big plays with their passing game. I give that advantage to Texas because I like McCoy more than Rudy Carpenter even without the Longhorns' big-play receiver Limas Sweed, who has been injured for most of the season.
Not to mention, Arizona St. hasn't been playing the kind of football that took them to a No. 2 ranking earlier this season. The Sun Devils have dropped two of their last four contests and barely defeated weak UCLA and Arizona squads by a combined seven points.
Top 2008 draft prospects: Arizona St. – S Josh Barrett, OC Mike Pollak, LB Robert James, RB Ryan Torain, WR Rudy Burgess; Texas – WR Limas Sweed, DT Frank Okam, OT Tony Hills, S Marcus Griffin, WR Billy Pittman, DT Derek Lokey, LB Robert Killebrew, LB Drew Kelson.
Prediction: Texas 32, Arizona State 28
Here's a quick look at bowl games taking place through Monday:
Champs Sports Bowl
Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)
4 p.m. Friday
Last bowl appearances: Boston College 37, North Carolina 24 (2007 Meineke Car Care); Nebraska 17, Michigan State 3 (2003 Alamo).
Top 2008 draft prospects: Boston College – QB Matt Ryan, OT Gosder Cherilus, CB Dejuan Tribble, LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar, DT Busari Raji, RB Andre Callender, S Jamie Silva, DE Nick Larkin; Michigan St. – TE Kellen Davis, RB Jehuu Caulcrick, DE Ervin Baldwin.
Synopsis: Boston College opened the season 8-0 and was ranked No. 2 in late October. The Eagles – now ranked 14th – lost three of their last five games, including the ACC Championship game 30-16 to Virginia Tech.
So, instead of playing for a national championship or even in a BCS bowl, the Eagles find themselves in the Champs Sports Bowl against Michigan State.
As far as recent history, these two teams come from completely different experiences. Boston College currently holds the longest bowl-winning streak in the nation at seven games. Meanwhile, Michigan St. hadn’t played in a bowl since 2003.
The Spartans underachieved for the last four years, despite having a quarterback in Drew Stanton that many scouts felt had elite attributes. Now, Stanton is gone – he was drafted by the Detroit Lions in the second round last year – and the Spartans are considered to be overachieving.
Michigan St. is more than capable of ending the Eagles’ postseason win streak, but have to have a huge game from dynamic wide receiver Devin Thomas, who ranks ninth in the country in receiving yards per game with 102.
Thomas could find plenty of opportunities to expose an Eagles’ pass defense that ranks 104th nationally.
Prediction: Boston College 41, Michigan St. 35 – At one time, Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan was considered the top Heisman contender. Ryan’s fortunes for the award went the same way as his team’s, proving as an indicator that the Eagles are only as good as their signal caller.
The Spartans simply aren’t equipped to slow Ryan down like Virginia Tech and Florida St. were late in the season.
What not to expect in this game? There won’t be much production from either team’s ground game.
Boston College hasn’t shown a consistent run game this season. Michigan St. has with Jovon Ringer, but the Eagles have the nation’s top run defense.
An aerial shootout is expected and that favors Ryan and the Eagles.
Texas Bowl
TCU (7-5) vs. Houston (8-4)
7 p.m. Friday (NFL Network)
Last bowl appearances: TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7 (2006 Poinsettia); South Carolina 44, Houston 36 (2006 Liberty)
Top 2008 draft prospects: DE Tommy Blake, DE Chase Ortiz, S Brian Bonner; Houston – WR Donnie Avery, RB Anthony Alridge, LB Brendan Pahulu, WR Jeron Harvey.
Synopsis: How about a bowl that is appropriately named? For just the second time in its eight year history, the Texas Bowl features two teams from its title state. The first time occurred in 2001 when Texas A&M defeated TCU, 28-9. The Horned Frogs are playing in their third Texas Bowl – the most of any other school in the game’s history. They’re 1-1 with their win coming in 2005 over Iowa St., 27-24.
This matchup pits one of the nation’s best offenses (Houston) against one of the country’s top defenses (TCU). The Cougars rank fourth overall in offense and will play in its fourth bowl game in five years, but will perform without Coach Art Briles, who left to take the head coaching job at Baylor. Briles is highly responsible for the resurgence of the Houston program and will be sorely missed.
Much of what Houston accomplishes offensively is because of the system Briles’ installed, taking advantage of great athletes such as running back Anthony Alridge – seventh nationally in rushing yards per game – and wide receiver Donnie Avery – fourth nationally in receiving yards per game.
However, it’s hard to say how those two will be utilized without Briles calling the plays.
On the other hand, TCU ranks 16th in total defense. A top defense has become tradition for the Horned Frogs, though.
Coming into the season, TCU appeared to be a potential BCS Buster. Unfortunately, an early loss to Texas took them off that radar, but TCU kept spiraling downward, losing to Air Force the following week.
Prediction: TCU 24, Houston 22 – Something’s got to give. TCU can’t allow this game to turn into an offensive shootout. That favors Houston hugely.
However, if the game’s pace remains slow and TCU can control the ball and not turn it over, then their defense should be able to stop the Cougars enough for the victory.
If Briles were on the sideline, then the outlook might be more positive for Houston. Instead, the Cougars – who haven’t won a bowl game since the 1980 Garden State Bowl – will lose their eight consecutive postseason contest.
Emerald Bowl
Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
7:30 p.m. Friday (ESPN)
Last bowl appearances: Maryland 24, Purdue 7 (2006 Champs); Oregon St. 39, Missouri 38 (2006 Sun)
Top 2008 draft prospects: LB Erin Henderson (Jr.), DT Dre Moore, RB Keon Lattimore, RB Lance Ball, TE Joseph Haynos, OG Andrew Crummey; Oregon St. – RB Yvenson Bernard, OG Roy Schuening, WR Sammie Stroughter, K Alexis Serna, LB/S Derrick Doggett, LB Derrick Doggett, DE Dorian Smith, WR Anthony Brown.
Synopsis: Maryland’s Terrapins do nothing exceptionally well. This is a case where a team’s record points to exactly how good the team is. The Terrapins have a mediocre record and, frankly, they’re a mediocre squad.
Defensively, Maryland is good at creating turnovers, but will give up its fair share of yardage. The Terrapins do boast one of the best linebackers in the country, however, in junior Erin Henderson.
Offensively, Maryland depends heavily upon a two-headed running back monster featuring Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball. However, Lattimore and Ball will find it difficult to run against an Oregon St. Beavers defense ranked second nationally.
The Beavers started the season losing three of their first five games. However, they posted a 6-1 record to finish the year 8-4.
Oregon St. features one of the most underrated running backs in the country – Yvenson Bernard. Bernard has struggled at times this season due to the complete lack of a passing attack, but still ranks 28th nationally in rushing yards. He’s also the team leader in receptions.
Prediction: Oregon St. 21, Maryland 15 – For whatever reason, Maryland simply sticks in most games. The Terrapins do nothing outstanding, but compete hard in every contest. Seven of Maryland’s games were decided by 10 points or less.
The Terrapins will scheme well to slow down Bernard enough to keep the game close, but will find it close to impossible to mount any consistency against Oregon St.’s superior defense.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
UConn (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Noon Saturday (ESPN)
Last bowl appearance: UConn 39, Toledo 10 (2004 Motor City); Louisville 24, Wake Forest 13 (2007 Orange)
Top 2008 draft prospects: UConn – LB Danny Lansanah; Wake Forest – OC Steven Justice, DE Jeremy Thompson, WR Kenneth Moore.
Synopsis: If these two schools were playing basketball, it would be considered a marquee matchup. However, this game is taking place on the gridiron instead of the hardwood.
Don’t be surprised if there are at least five interceptions thrown in this game with Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner being responsible for a majority of them.
Both defenses do a fantastic job of picking the ball off. The Demon Deacons feature the nation’s individual leader in interceptions – Alphonso Smith, who has eight picks this season and has returned three for touchdowns.
Meanwhile, UConn is led defensively by sophomore Robert Vaughn, who is tied for seventh nationally in interceptions with six.
Prediction: UConn 23, Wake Forest 20 – This game features two of the nation’s best kickers – UConn’s Tony Ciaravino and Wake’s Sam Swank. Expect them to each be put in situations late in the contest to kick game-deciding field goals.
UConn gets a slight edge because they’ll create fewer opportunities for Wake’s offense to get on the field. Quarterback Tyler Lorenzen isn’t a game breaker, but he doesn’t make mistakes that lead to losses either. T
The Huskies are playing in just their second bowl game in school history and are trying to go a perfect 2-0 in the postseason.
Liberty Bowl
UCF (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
3:30 p.m. Saturday (ESPN)
Last bowl appearance: Nevada 49, UCF 48 (2005 Hawaii); Mississippi St. 43, Texas A&M 41 (2000 Independence)
Top 2008 draft prospects: UCF – DE Leger Douzable, OT Josh Sitton; Mississippi St. – DE Titus Brown, WR Tony Burks.
Synopsis: Like to witness history? Central Florida’s junior running back Kevin Smith is a mere 181 yards away from breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season record for rushing yards.
It’s a mere amount of yardage for Smith because he averages 188 yards per game this season. He enters this matchup with 2,448 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns.
And don’t think he has done all of that against inferior competition. He torched Texas’ 10th ranked run defense for 149 yards and two touchdowns Sept. 15.
Smtih has topped 100 yards in every game except one against South Florida this season. He’s surpassed 200 yards rushing five times.
Mississippi St. allows an average of 159 yards on the ground a game. The Bulldogs did, however, keep Arkansas’ Darren McFadden to less than 100 yards earlier this season.
Unfortunately for Mississippi St. – which is making its first postseason appearance since 2000 – UCF’s prowess in the ground game essentially negates the Bulldogs top defensive player, defensive end Titus Brown.
Brown is one of the best pass rushers in the SEC, but won’t find many opportunities to add to his sack total against UCF.
Prediction: UCF 38, Miss. St.. 13 – This is a fantastic matchup for the Golden Knights. The bigger prediction in this game is whether Smith will break the record. I think he will. Don’t be shocked if he tops 200 yards in this contest.
Bulldogs Head Coach Sylvester Croom’s ability to turnaround the Mississippi St. program is a great story, but he’ll have to wait another year to grab his first bowl victory.
Alamo Bowl
Penn State vs. Texas A&M
7 p.m. Saturday (ESPN)
Last bowl appearances: Penn St. 20, Tennessee 10 (2006 Outback); Cal 45, Texas A&M 10 (2006 Holiday)
Top 2008 draft prospects: Penn St. – LB Dan Connor, CB Justin King (Jr.), QB Anthony Morelli, RB Rodney Kinlaw; Texas A&M – DT Red Bryant, OC Cody Wallace, DE Chris Harrington, OG Charles Elder, LB Misiovala Tupe, WR Kerry Franks, OT Corey Clark, LB Mark Dodge, DB Marquis Carpenter, WR Kerry Franks.
Synopsis: In this region of the country, there isn’t a more disappointing college football team in the past three years than the Texas A&M Aggies. However, in the northwestern reaches of the country, most fans feel that Penn St. has been the most disappointing squad in the nation.
Since defeating Florida St., 26-23, in triple overtime in the 2005 Orange Bowl, the Nittany Lions have failed to live up to preseason expectations and have struggled against elite teams.
Likewise, Texas A&M has shown flashes of greatness over the past few seasons, but have never linked together any form of consistency to take the next step into the Big 12’s elite. The Aggies have been blown out in their last two bowl games — 45-10 by Cal in the 2006 Holiday Bowl and 38-7 by Tennessee in the 2004 Cotton Bowl.
However, changes are on the horizon as Dennis Franchione has been fired as head coach after four underachieving seasons and former Green Bay Packers head coach and Aggies assistant coach Mike Sherman has been brought in to replace him.
Personally, I feel the Aggies moved much too quickly in hiring Sherman. It was if the administration just wanted to bring in a coach linked with legendary coach R.C. Slocum. If they wanted a Slocum associate so badly, then why not rehire Slocum himself?
The Sherman hire raises a lot of questions and the Aggies might not see any relief soon. Although, it isn’t as if Sherman doesn’t inherit any talent.
The Aggies boast one of the best rushing attacks in the country led by quarterback Stephen McGee. They also have a bulldozer in running back Jovorskie Lane, who weighs upwards of 270 pounds, and one of the fastest backs in the country, Mike Goodson.
Consistency in the coaching ranks haven’t been a problem for Penn St. for decades. Joe Paterno is second on the all-time victories list behind Florida St.’s Bobby Bowden. The fact Joe Pa can earn the respect of a new generation of athletes despite just turning 81 is impressive. He’s coaching his 500th game Saturday and has been stalking the sidelines in Happy Valley for 41 years.
The game being played in San Antonio provides a significant advantage for the Aggies, whose trip from College Station is obviously shorter than the Nittany Lions travel from Pennsylvania.
However, Joe Pa has overcome those odds before. Penn St. shutout A&M, 24-0, in the 1999 Alamo Bowl.
Prediction: Penn St. 24, Texas A&M 10 — A&M’s offense is a dominant rushing attack. That’s all the Aggies do well, though. If they fall behind early, then the Aggies struggle to catch up.
Unfortunately for A&M, Penn St. has the sixth ranked run defense nationally and give up a mere 88 yards a game on the ground. The Nittany Lions secondary can be made suspect, but the Aggies don’t have the ability to attack Penn St. vertically.
Even then, the Nittany Lions have one of the best pass rushers in college football in sophomore defensive end Maurice Evans, who has recorded 12 sacks this season.
Penn St. is still Linebacker U. I read a column recently saying Miami had stolen that title from Penn St., but that hasn’t happened just yet. The Nittany Lions’ Dan Connor is just another in a long line of great Penn St. linebackers. Connor leads the Nittany Lions with 11 tackles a game.
As if his presence wasn’t enough, there’s also the next great linebacker at Penn St. helping Connor patrol the field, junior Sean Lee. Lee averages 10 tackles a game.
In other words, it looks as if this could be a long, frustrating day for the Aggies run-heavy offense.
Bowl Preview Part 2
Linear Mode
