Mock for Potential Fall of Stafford

[cubuffsman78]

Here's an article I just posted on the FFJ main site.

Nothing is debated more hotly in the NFL Draft than where the top QBs might land. This year is no different.

Georgia QB Matthew Stafford has had his every action followed around religiously and the speculation of him landing No. 1 overall to the Detroit Lions has dominated NFL headlines not containing the words Terrell or Owens and Jay or Cutler in them.

Really, it’s nothing new. It’s the sexiest, and most important, position on the field. Everyone wants the franchise QB from a franchise’s upper management to its most casual of fans.

Is Stafford that answer, though?

This writer doesn’t think so and the Lions might not, either.

The arguments against Stafford are nothing new. No one can deny his big arm and prototypical size, however, he’s one of the more inconsistent QBs to ever be consider for the top spot overall.

His measurable will make him a high pick, but it might not be to the Lions.

Several reports out of Detroit indicate the Lions are considering Baylor OT Jason Smith with higher regard than Stafford. I can’t say I blame them, either.

Smith is the smarter pick. His work ethic is second to none. He’s incredibly agile for someone his size with great footwork. Not to mention, he’s yet to reach his full potential as he’s been a starter at the position for just three years and didn’t play it in high school at W.T. White in the Dallas area.

What’s the point of drafting a QB like Stafford, who is somewhat mobile but definitely not a scrambler, when you can’t protect him? The Lions have much more they need to address than just QB. The weapons are no in place for a rookie QB to succeed.

Yes, the Lions have a great WR in Calvin Johnson and a potentially solid RB in Kevin Smith, but Stafford will struggle to get either of them the ball without protection.

There are definitely arguments against taking Smith over Stafford. For one, this is a very deep OT class and the Lions could find quality players at the position with their second pick in the first round (20) – maybe Alabama’s Andre Smith falls that far due to all the red flags he’s posting – or with the first pick of the second round (33) – like Arizona’s Eben Britton or UConn’s William Beatty, if either are available.

Many experts, like ESPN’s Mel Kiper, believe a QB is more important than an OT because it’s the QB that ultimately wins Super Bowls. I’ll respectfully disagree as I remember guys like Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer once winning a championship as mediocre, just-don’t-make-any-mistakes signal callers.

Both Dilfer and Johnson played on teams with dominant defenses and solid ground games, though. It’s a formula for winning a title that can definitely work, but Detroit has to spend picks on defense and along the offensive line for it to do so.

Picking Stafford also puts a ticking time bomb on the job status of first-year General Manager Martin Mayhew as well as rookie Head Coach Jim Schwartz. Those guys will have three years – unless the Ford family, which owns the Lions, show the same type of patience with losing as they did with Matt Millen – to turn the ship around with their supposed franchise QB.

How seriously should the rumors out of Detroit about Smith being the No. 1 pick be taken? Right now, with a grain of salt. Simply know he’s in the conversation and is a possibility.

Stafford had a personal workout with the Lions Tuesday, and while the workout was closed to the media, an unidentified source said the workout was “flawless” and a definite improvement over his pro day. However, whether that source came from the Lions or from Stafford’s agent is unknown.

Still, naming Smith as the leading candidate for the No. 1 overall pick through the media could just be a ploy.

Of all the elite players in the draft, which is the most likely to produce the most interest in trade circumstances?

It’s not Stafford. Many teams will shy away from the risk of selecting a QB so high and several don’t have a huge need at QB anyway. It’s not Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry either, although many NFL scouts are said to have him atop their draft board as the best player available. Sadly, Curry doesn’t play a position considered worthy of paying a first-pick overall salary, too.

The obvious answer is Smith. There is more need among the teams capable of trading into the No. 1 slot at OT than any other position. Think the Rams might consider switching spots with the Lions to get Smith? They wanted an OT bad last year, but saw Jake Long go to Miami with the first pick. Not to mention, they just cut Orlando Pace.

The Chiefs are in dire need at the position as well and pick third. Seattle knows it needs to find a replacement for Walter Jones in the draft.

What about Cincinnati moving up from No. 6? The Bengals have no greater need than OT and both Smith and Virginia’s Eugene Monroe could be gone by the time they pick.

The rumors of Smith going No. 1 could encourage any of those teams, depending on how much they value getting an OT early. As soon as Smith is gone, Monroe will follow quickly.

The next debate comes from speculation about how far Stafford could fall if the Lions pass on him. Is it going to be a Matt Leinart-type fall, where he remains in the top 10? Or are we talking about an Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn-type plummet, where he drops into the mid-20s?

[cubuffsman78]

A quick first-round mock should help with that speculation.

1 Lions
Jason Smith OT Baylor
OK. The drop is initiated. The Lions make the “right move” and pick up Smith to build the offense around. Brilliant!

2 Rams
Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
For a second consecutive year, the Rams miss on the OT they want. Eugene Monroe is possible, but Curry is a much better prospect and fills a huge need on the defensive side of the ball. Monroe is terribly overrated. He’s solid, but he’s not elite. Stafford is possible here, but Bulger has the ability to still produce, if he can stay off his backside long enough.

3 Chiefs
Brian Orakpo DE Texas
No Stafford here, not with Matt Cassel on board. Orakpo gives the Chiefs the pass rushing force they desperately need.

4 Seahawks
Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
I mean it, Monroe is overrated, but he’s the best option for Seattle here. Stafford will be considered. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t exactly young and spry, but does have some years left in him. That would give Stafford the chance to develop.

5 Browns
Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
The Browns have two QBs they believe can start. It’ll be interesting to see whether Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn is traded before or during the draft. One of them will be and bet on Anderson. The Browns are unhappy with Braylon Edwards and he could also be moved, making Crabtree a nice replacement.

6 Bengals
B.J. Raji DT Boston College
Cincy has Carson Palmer, making no need for Stafford. OT is the need and expect the Bengals to try trading up for one as protecting Palmer is priority No. 1. Michael Oher and Andre Smith are both reaches here. Raji is the best player available and Cincy always seems to be lacking a defensive playmaker.

7 Raiders
Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri
The Raiders took JaMarcus Russel No. 1 overall in 2008, leaving Stafford as a non-option again. Maclin is the speedy, sexy pick Al Davis loves.

8 Jaguars
Matt Stafford QB Georgia
Here he is! So it’s a Matt Leinart-typ of fall. Again, it’s a nice fit in Jacksonville because the Jags don’t have to rush him on the field as he sits and learns behind David Garrard, who is 31 years old. They did just invest a lot of money in Garrard, though, and protecting him is an issue. Oher actually fits the Jags power blocking scheme brilliantly, too. Don’t be surprised if the Fall of Stafford continues past here. Where would he land? My bet would be in the mid-to-late teens, depending on who might decide to trade up for him. Watch Tampa Bay.

The question now is where does the next QB come off the board? Mark Sanchez is a unanimous choice as the second-best signal caller in the draft and he’s garnering lots of attention from teams believing Stafford will be gone before their time to pick. So let’s continue.

9 Packers
Aaron Maybin LB Penn State
Packers aren’t going QB. However, the switch to a 3-4 will make Green Bay take several players in this draft who fit that scheme.

10 49ers
Brian Cushing LB USC
The Niners could be interested in a QB and reportedly prefer Sanchez over Stafford. However, further reports say they’re willing to go with Shaun Hill at QB and look to the defensive side of things.

11 Bills
Everette Brown DE Florida State
The Bills don’t have an enviable situation at QB, but it could also be worse. They’ll give Trent Edwards another year as he did show flashes in 2008. The biggest need here is a pass rush and they’re fortunate to have one of the top three DEs still available.

The Bills also hold a valuable trading spot, though. Denver and Washington could both be in the market for a QB. Washington is showing interest in Sanchez as patience with Jason Campbell is growing thin. That means teams like Tampa Bay, or possibly Chicago, could make a move to secure Sanchez. I’m not projecting trades, though.

12 Broncos
Malcolm Jenkins DB Ohio State
Denver would like to get a front-seven defender, who can play in the 3-4. That makes Clay Matthews or Tyson Jackson possible. Both are reaches, though. Jenkins is most likely a safety for the Broncos, but he should get looked at for CB. Forget about straight line speed for a moment. Even at CB, straight line speed is rarely used.

13 Redskins
Mark Sanchez QB USC
I’ll buy into the reports for now. There are bigger needs for this team and it’ll be hard for the Skins to pass on either Michael Oher or Andre Smith. There are reports indicating the Redskins have already put Sanchez through a private workout and are now in the process of performing due diligence in researching him.

After Sanchez, the next QB on the list is Kansas State’s Josh Freeman, who has incredible size and a strong arm. However, he is the definition of erratic at this point. Some think he could go in the top 20 to either Tampa Bay or Detroit. That’s reaching, but teams are known to do that in order to get their guy.

Don’t be surprised if Detroit pulls the trigger on Freeman if he’s available with the first pick in the second round. But if they do, the Lions need to be confident in Daute Culpepper’s ability to hold up for the next two or three seasons. Freeman won’t be close to ready to play in the NFL right away and will need the extra time.

If they don’t think Culpepper can be healthy for that long, pass on a QB in this draft and get one next year. The crop headlined by Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford is much better.

Here’s a look at the rest of my current first-round mock.

14 Saints
Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
Chris Wells could end up here as well. The Saints can’t rely on Reggie Bush to work every down.

15 Texans
Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
Oher is a steal here and gives the Texans their most formidable OT in franchise history.

16 Chargers
Tyson Jackson DE LSU
From a steal to a reach with the Chargers. I’m not high on Jackson, but he’s a rare commodity with the ability to play DE in the 3-4. The loss of Igor Olshansky makes Jackson very valuable to San Diego.

17 Jets
Vontae Davis CB Illinois
WR is also possible, but Davis is a nice value here and Rex Ryan is obviously a defensive mind.

18 Bears
Andre Smith OT Alabama
Smith threw up his own red flags with lots of bad decisions. He’s a great pick up for the Bears, who are in dire need at OT.

19 Buccanneers
Percy Harvin WR Florida
Playmakers needed. I expect to Bucs to make a move either up or down from this spot. However, if they stick, putting Harvin opposite the re-emerging Antonio Bryant gives Tampa Bay some nice weapons once it finds a QB.

20 Lions (DAL)
Rey Maualuga LB USC
Adding Maualuga gives Detroit one of the best trio of starting LBs in the league with Ernie Sims and Julian Peterson lining up beside him.

21 Eagles
Chris Wells RB Ohio State
Moreno would be preferred, but Wells is an option the Eagles must consider.

22 Vikings
Darius Butler CB UConn
Butler has the best ball skills of any CB in the draft. He’s flying up boards and could go in the top 20.

23 Patriots
Clay Matthews LB USC
Matthews is great value here. There are rumors the Pats are thinking DL with this pick, but I don’t know if they could pass on a versatile workhorse like Matthews.

24 Falcons
James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State
Keith Brooking and Michael Boley are gone via free agency. Replacing them is key. Laurinaitis could play on the strong side next to MLB Curtis Lofton.

25 Dolphins
Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
Smith is undersized, but he plays with relentless fervor. While there are needs on the offense, Parcells doesn’t draft that way at all.

26 Ravens
Darius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
Fantastic value here at a huge position of need. The Ravens should be ecstatic.

27 Colts
Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss
Jerry fits the Colts’ mold for a DT perfectly.

28 Eagles (CAR)
Eben Britton OT Arizona
It’s a great OT class and the Eagles get good value for a solid player.

29 Giants
Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
The Giants got one sack from their DEs in the final four games of the regular season because they simply wore down.

30 Titans
Evander Hood DT Missouri
Replacing Albert Haynesworth won’t be easy, but Ziggy should be an adequate fill in.

31 Cardinals
Donald Brown RB UConn
Edge shouldn’t be back. Brown is flying up boards and is a nice compliment to Tim Hightower.

32 Steelers
Alex Mack OC Cal
Mack could go as high as 24 and is worth it. Can’t see him falling past the Steelers.

[mrdv1]

This must have been really quick... least favorite of mine of ure mocks..

I know you know this but B.J. Raji played for B.C., might wanna fix that.

You told me I had a ton of reaches as far as corners, but my picks were in similar spots... I had Smith at 14, Davis at 22, and sean smith at 26, you have davis at 17, Butler at 22, and smith at 25. Doesn't look much different man. Maybe it was because of the difference in players, but you wrote, "CBs are too high. I think they take a dip about five spots for each of them. I do think four could still be taken in the first round." well we agree on the 4 in the first round, but 14/17, 22/22, 26/25 is not a five pick drop...

I don't think the saints will draft moreno with Pierre Thomas there, who played well. New Orleans has had a nack the past couple years with getting guys to fill in for when Duece and reggie got (and will continue to get) hurt. I do think they draft a RB, but not till round 2 or 3. Defense seems like a more pressing need... although they were near last in rushing offense. That could be because drew brees passed for 5000 yards though... the pick is possible but not likely in my estimation.

Why would houston draft a LT when they drafted one in the first round last year in Duane Brown?

The giants will not draft a defensive end. Theyre DE situation is set. They have Tuck and Kiwi, and a healthy Osi coming back. Thats two probowlers in Tuck and Osi, then Kiwi is a starter on any team in this league. Aside from that we signed Chris Canty as a free agent for depth. We also have former first rounder jerome Mcdougle on the roster, who is a decent backup. The giants will look in a couple directions. First, if laurinaitis is available, he will be picked faster than anything. Pierce is getting old at MLB and it started to show last season - one of my favorite ball players, but he had some senior moments last yr lol. Jlaur could start on the strong side for them as well.

If he doesn't, and a guy like eben britton is there, look for him to get picked, as kareem Mckenzie was terrible last season. His poor play was covered up often by the overall quality of the oline, as they work very well together, and by the assistance of FB madison Hedgcock.

The other obvious route to go is WR. Plax will probably be back but not till 2010, and so a possesion WR will be looked at. They have speed with mannigham, moss, and smith, but guys like Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks, who have good size or ball skills (possesion receivers) will get hard looks.

The other position that they should fill, which no one is talking about, is RB... beleive it or not. Derrick Ward is in tampa bay now, and was a key key component to our success. Jacobs is not an everydown back... hes too big and physical and runs too high to have more than 20 carries a game, he'll be done by week 9. Bradshaw is a nice change of pace, but the coaching staff refuses to play him before the third. He's very small, and they use him like NOS at the end of a race to give that break away effect at rb at the end of the game when defenses are tired. If Moreno falls to them, he would be a perfect inbetween type RB to fill in where ward left off. If he doesnt fall, look for the giants to go one of the first 3 options in the first, then snatch up lesean mccoy at with there mid round second rounder (45 i beleive).

I did like some things though, I agree stafford lands at 8 (which will be seen in my newest mock.) I have sanchez falling to tampa.

I like crabtree to cleveland but if and only if edwards goes. Until he is traded, I won't predict that in mocks, but if he is im on the same page.

look forward to your next one

[cubuffsman78]

I don't project Oher to be their LT, but a RT where he'd be even better. Placing him and Duane Brown together gives them theirs most formidable OTs they've ever had. I do think Oher is much better than Brown, too.

I know you're close to the Giants as a fan, but I think the complete lack of production from the position late in the season is a huge red flag. I know Osi is coming back, but there are always question marks after someone misses an entire year like he did. Depth is needed and Canty will not play DE in New York. He's not a pass rusher. He's a DT in the 4-3. Putting him on the left side on running downs could work, but other than that he's a DT that the Giants overpaid for.

Pierre Thomas is nice, but he's not a longterm solution and isn't as capable as even Deuce was at running between the tackles. He's more like Bush than McCallister. I rate Moreno higher than Wells and don't like the thought of Wells going so high, but I do think the Saints might value the bigger back in this case.

I'm not happy with how I placed the CBs either. I can see Jenkins going that high, but I do feel Davis could slip into the 20s.

This mock is one I did just for the column, trying to see how far Stafford might fall if he doesn't go No. 1. Honestly, I think Detroit is using a ploy right now and will still draft Stafford at this point. That changes a lot.

[bowler533]

I think Crabtree is definately high on the Browns list. Edwards is on the hot seat, Stallworth might not play again, but probably not this season. They need a WR as I have in my most recently posted mock.

[mrdv1]

Originally Posted by cubuffsman78 I don't project Oher to be their LT, but a RT where he'd be even better. Placing him and Duane Brown together gives them theirs most formidable OTs they've ever had. I do think Oher is much better than Brown, too. I know you're close to the Giants as a fan, but I think the complete lack of production from the position late in the season is a huge red flag. I know Osi is coming back, but there are always question marks after someone misses an entire year like he did. Depth is needed and Canty will not play DE in New York. He's not a pass rusher. He's a DT in the 4-3. Putting him on the left side on running downs could work, but other than that he's a DT that the Giants overpaid for. Pierre Thomas is nice, but he's not a longterm solution and isn't as capable as even Deuce was at running between the tackles. He's more like Bush than McCallister. I rate Moreno higher than Wells and don't like the thought of Wells going so high, but I do think the Saints might value the bigger back in this case. I'm not happy with how I placed the CBs either. I can see Jenkins going that high, but I do feel Davis could slip into the 20s. This mock is one I did just for the column, trying to see how far Stafford might fall if he doesn't go No. 1. Honestly, I think Detroit is using a ploy right now and will still draft Stafford at this point. That changes a lot.

Do you really draft a right tackle at pick 15? with all the depth at tackle, and needs on the defense does it make sense? maybe but I don't buy it I think tackle in round two would be a better option especially money-wise.

i agree with you on new orleans but same deal where I think theyll get a bigger guy in round 2 or 3 instead of using their first rounder on a RB. Makes more sense for them to go defense to me.

agreed on the spot for jenkins... I think he'll fit in at fs nice for denver.

and you know maybe production did go down, but look at who they played... Dallas is a tough team with a decent line, the same with philly. Carolina was maybe the best team in the NFC, and Minnesota was playoff caliber as well. All those teams had good running games as well, and so they focus of the defense was to stop the run first, which could have hurt the sack numbers. The giants have much bigger holes to fill than DE. I don't disagree they draft a DE but the starters are in place, you dont draft a 4th DE in the first round, you just dont, you wait till later. You get a guy who will potentially start for you in round one. So i still have to strongly disagree. Our DE spot is not that big an issue.

[cubuffsman78]

Biggest point on Oher at 15 -- it's great value. I don't believe in always drafting biggest need and neither do most of the teams in the NFL. Year after year, we see teams passing on what appears like the biggest need for a pick of better value. That's Oher at 15.

Reaching to fill bigger needs is a terrible draft strategy. What defender is of need at 15? I don't think the Texans are in great need at CB. OLB could make sense, but is Clay Matthews close to Oher? I'd say no.

[porky88]

I think Jacksonville has invested so much time into scouting Mark Sanchez that he's their guy regardless of who goes No. 1. Every report I've read or seen has Jacksonville doing their homework on Mark Sanchez.

As far as Stafford goes. I don't think he'll fall like Quinn or Rodgers. Quinn and Rodgers were efficient quarterbacks. They weren't big arm playmakers like Stafford. Jamarucus Russell was more like Stafford. To me, Stafford is the next Jamarcus Russell. I think he'll be a risk, but he'll go early because that's just the way the NFL is right now. Teams are looking for the next John Elway or Brett Favre. They want the big arm QB and when they see it, they're all over it. Josh Freeman is rising high because of that reason and because of Joe Flacco's success in the playoffs. That's why I think he'll be over drafted too.

Personally Detroit is just toying with Jason Smith so they have a backup plan in place. They'll take Stafford if they have a deal, but if they can get a good deal with Smith then they'll take Smith. It's going to come down to negotiations. Stafford is going to want more money than Matt Ryan. Detroit will have to decide if that's what they want. With Cutler out there now, Detroit may try to offer up No. 20 to Denver for Cutler and then go Smith No. 1.

If they do go Smith, Stafford having a Matt Leinart fall is something I could see.

[Saint33]

The only way I see Stafford not going #1 is if they get Cutler and the #1 pick isn't involved.

However, if that does happen, Stafford could very easily fall down to Jacksonville or San Francisco, or Denver could possibly trade up for him.

[mrdv1]

Originally Posted by cubuffsman78 Biggest point on Oher at 15 -- it's great value. I don't believe in always drafting biggest need and neither do most of the teams in the NFL. Year after year, we see teams passing on what appears like the biggest need for a pick of better value. That's Oher at 15. Reaching to fill bigger needs is a terrible draft strategy. What defender is of need at 15? I don't think the Texans are in great need at CB. OLB could make sense, but is Clay Matthews close to Oher? I'd say no.

Touche lol... ure argument makes sense. I have to beleive that if cushing is there he'll be looked at hard, but at that point yes oher is the bpa. I didn't think about what defensive players were left. Right now in my mock I have Cushing going a pick ahead at 14, and oher/andre smith both not available. I have them taking Harvin.. what's your thoughts on that? To me he's worth pick 15 and theyre other receivers arent too great outside johnson.