SommerSD's post-combine, pre-April Mock Draft

[sommerSD]

As per usual, explainations are available upon request, and a few of these will likely need some....

1. Miami - DE Chris Long - Virginia
2. St. Louis - OT Jake Long - Michigan
3. Atlanta - QB Matt Ryan - Boston College
4. Oakland - DT Sedrick Ellis - Southern California
5. Kansas City - DT Glenn Dorsey - Louisiana State
6. New York Jets - RB Darren McFadden - Arkansas
7. New England (via San Fransisco) - CB Mike Jenkins - Southern Florida
8. Baltimore - DE Vernon Gholston - Ohio State
9. Cincinatti - CB Leodis McKelvin - Troy
10. New Orleans - CB Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie - Tennessee State
11. Buffalo - WR Limas Sweed - Texas
12. Denver - OT Ryan Clady - Boise State
13. Carolina - ILB Dan Conner - Pennsylvannia State
14. Chicago - RB Jonathon Stewart - Oregon
15. Detroit - OT Chris Williams - Vanderbilt
16. Arizona - DE Philip Merling - Clemson
17. Minnesota - DE Derrick Harvey - Florida
18. Houston - RB Rashard Mendehall - Illinois
19. Philadelphia - OT Jeff Otah - Pittsburgh
20. Tampa Bay - WR DeShaun Jackson - California
21. Washington - WR James Hardy - Indiana
22. Dallas (via Cleveland) - CB Aqib Talib - Kansas
23. Pittsburgh - OG Brandon Albert - Virginia
24. Tennessee - WR Malcolm Kelly - Oklahoma
25. Seattle - S Kenny Phillips - Miami
26. Jacksonville - DT Kentwan Balmer - North Carolina
27. ???? (via San Diego) - QB Brian Brohm - Louisville
28. Dallas - RB Chris Johnson - East Carolina
29. San Fransisco - WR Devin Thomas - Michigan State
30. Green Bay - OLB Keith Rivers - Southern California
31. New York Giants - DB Reggie Smith - Oklahoma
32. Miami Dolphins - QB Joe Flacco - Delaware

[porky88]

Keith Rivers in the late 1st? Could you explain that? I think he's a top 20 pick. I put him ahead of Dan Conner. Conner is more versatile though.

[cubuffsman78]

I dont' think the Raiders pass on McFadden. Fargas is good, but he's not McFadden and Al Davis loves the big, sexy pick.

I don't think both DTs are in the top 5. One of them could slip to NE or Cincy and I actually expect that to happen.

I think NE would actually go with Gholston over a CB, if he's available. He's worth so much more than the rest. I project one or two of these CBs in the top 10 and I always feel like I have a team reaching. I'm not sure that any of them are worth that much, but someone has to be right? I do think the top four CBs are gone by pick 22, though. As a Cowboys' fan, I can only hope one of them is available by No. 22. I don't project it that way in my latest mocks.

I don't think Merling is a 3-4 DE. In all honesty, I think Harvey now projects better as a 3-4 DE than Merling does. Harvey has longer arms and is incredibly powerful. Much stronger than anyone gives him credit for and he's added a lot of muscle to his frame.

OK. I get what you're trying to do with the whole San Diego trading their pick thing, but what's the point of projecting a trade. Do you realize how many trades could happen in the draft and in the first round? Why only one for your team? Just project a pick to them. It gives more to discuss.

I like seeing Chris Johnson there instead of Felix Jones. I think he's definitely the better prospect.

Devin Thomas would be great in SF. He'd look great with a star on his helmet too.

I don't like the separation between Connor and Rivers. I think they'll be less than 10 picks from each other.

For the record, I think Reggie Smith will be a safety in the NFL now, meaning he could end up being viewed as the elite safety prospect in this draft because Phillips fails to impress in workouts.

[kc5950]

Originally Posted by cubuffsman78 I don't like the separation between Connor and Rivers. I think they'll be less than 10 picks from each other.

I've seen you say or imply this on multiple occasions. I highly disagree with this philosophy.

Players difference in ability doesn't necessarily define their draft spot.

I really don't think Rivers falls past #11, teams with needs at linebacker at littered through the top 11. However, no team from 14-25 will have linebacker among their top needs.

I agree that Connor and Rivers are very close, and Jerod Mayo is not far behind. However, many drafts which have a college linebacker taken early do not have another college linebacker taken until much later. 2001 was a very similar draft to this one, in my opinion. Go check out the 1st and 2nd rounds.

[cubuffsman78]

Originally Posted by kc5950 I've seen you say or imply this on multiple occasions. I highly disagree with this philosophy. Players difference in ability doesn't necessarily define their draft spot. I really don't think Rivers falls past #11, teams with needs at linebacker at littered through the top 11. However, no team from 14-25 will have linebacker among their top needs. I agree that Connor and Rivers are very close, and Jerod Mayo is not far behind. However, many drafts which have a college linebacker taken early do not have another college linebacker taken until much later. 2001 was a very similar draft to this one, in my opinion. Go check out the 1st and 2nd rounds.

I don't base it just on their ability, although, I find them to be very close in abilities and do base it on needs as well.

15. Lions need a middle linebacker. Remember they were in pursuit of Vilma.

16. Cards could look at either Connor or Rivers based on their potential versatility within a 3-4.

19. Eagles have been looking for a middle linebacker.

I think one of those three teams in the range you mentioned will take Connor or Rivers, if available.

Mayo isn't far behind and I think Erin Henderson deserves to be in this conversation as well. Both could go in the late first.

[kc5950]

Originally Posted by cubuffsman78 I don't base it just on their ability, although, I find them to be very close in abilities and do base it on needs as well. 15. Lions need a middle linebacker. Remember they were in pursuit of Vilma. 16. Cards could look at either Connor or Rivers based on their potential versatility within a 3-4. 19. Eagles have been looking for a middle linebacker. I think one of those three teams in the range you mentioned will take Connor or Rivers, if available. Mayo isn't far behind and I think Erin Henderson deserves to be in this conversation as well. Both could go in the late first.

The Lions have bigger needs, in my opinion, and can fill linebacker in later rounds as they are pushed back by the deep DB and WR classes. The same teams you mentioned are in the market for a WR or a DB. Ken Whisenhunt's lineage has had success with linebackers outside of the 1st round. The Eagles have a need at DE, and if Derrick Harvey drops there, he'd be a good fit, IMO. They also need a possession receiver, and could reach for Devin Thomas at 19.

I'm not saying that a linebacker wont go between those, but linebacker isn't the most pressing need for those teams in my opinion.

You could be entirely right, but the space between their draft slots is an inconsequential, and insignificant criticism in my opinion.

[cubuffsman78]

Don't overvalue need either. Teams take the best players on the board more times than not. No use in reaching for a need instead. That gets a team in trouble. It's all about value and I think Connor and Rivers have more value in the top 20 than most of the guys put into the mix.

[kc5950]

Originally Posted by cubuffsman78 Don't overvalue need either. Teams take the best players on the board more times than not. No use in reaching for a need instead. That gets a team in trouble. It's all about value and I think Connor and Rivers have more value in the top 20 than most of the guys put into the mix.

I guess thats where I disagree. I think Rivers is a top 20 prospect, maybe a top 15, but considering that New England, Cincinatti, New Orleans (even with Vilma) Carolina, and Buffalo have linebacker very high on there list of needs, they will reach on him. Conversely, I think that Connor has late 1st round value, and while teams will certainly take a look at him through my stated range, I don't think he'll be the BPA at any point until late into the first round.

Once again, I'm not saying your wrong, I'm just saying your reasoning is bogus. The space between them is an arbitrary number, this is a weak linebacking class, and if Connor clears the Panthers he's going to drop. If Rivers clears the Panthers, Connor will probably drop farther because the supply/demand ratio will suddenly tilt harshly toward the supply side, compared to where we sit in March.

[kc5950]

Also, as a critique of the draft.

I'm a fan of Kenny Phillips, and I'd love to see him in a Seahawks uniform, don't get me wrong. However, considering the money and structure in Deon Grant's contract, and the play of Brian Russell (who outplayed Grant this year), I don't feel that Safety will be a high priority.

I understand the Seahawks are an ugly team to project this year. I'm more informed on the Seahawks than any other team, and I am still sitting here scratching my head. I've narrowed it down to... Brandon Albert, Felix Jones, Carl Nicks, Brian Brohm, Devin Thomas, Early Doucet, James Hardy as guys who I'd be happy with, though I don't feel Doucet is a first round pick, and Kentwan Balmer, DeSean Jackson, Jonathan Stewart, any corner not named Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Fred Davis as guys i wouldn't be happy with, but are distinct possibilities.