New Updates to Mel Kiper's envy (3/17)
For the most part, this is just a copy-past of my last mock. There are just minor changes after all the free agency flurry (my mock was that darn good!!) most notably at QB. For those who haven't bothered with the first one because of the posted date, enjoy the most accurate mock this side of Kiper himself.
1. San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith, QB Utah | This pick was Aaron Rodgers all the way until Smith's Pro-Day workout. From what all I have read, it sounds like he was perfect in every aspect. With the draft right around the corner, I really think Smith just stole Rodgers'spot and cost him a whole lot of money. Add their bowl game performances and I truly think Smith is deserving of the #1 pick.
2. Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown, RB Auburn | Poor Cedric Benson. If he is smart, he fires his agent and slaps himself for being stupid and not participating in the combine. Brown knew what he had, and will get the bigger payday because of it. I know the combine isn't everything, but when someone this big runs that fast, it turns heads. Add the fact that he hasn't taken the pounding from sharing carries, Brown has the chance to be a durable back for many years. Compares to Jamal Lewis.
3. Cleveland Browns - Derrick Johnson, LB Texas | This is going to be an interesting pick here. I stay with Johnson since Crennel is the new coach and must have a linebacking-leader. Also, a LB the type of Johnson comes around once every five years or more. The only other option here is Aaron Rodgers. Since Kelly Holcomb did not re-sign, they may go with a rookie QB. Rodgers will drop a long ways if he is not picked here thanks to Alex Smith's Pro-Day.
4. Chicago Bears - Braylon Edwards, WR Michigan | Some places have Benson picked here. The Bears' running game is not great, but Thomas Jones is no bum either. Their wideouts, with the one exception of Muhsin Muhammed (spelling?), is horrible. Even with their free-agent pick up, they need another good, young WR, and Edwards will provide a deep threat who can score from anywhere.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Carnell Williams, RB Auburn | Benson may be the better back, but Coach Gruden formed a relationship with the Cadillac at the Senior Bowl. He has an idea how he works and knows more about him personally. It may come back to bite them later, but Williams is drafted here.
6. Tennessee Titans - Pac-Man Jones, CB West Virginia | This is one team who probably wished they could have re-signed some of their own DBs. Mike Williams would have been here with Norm Chow, but since they are depleted, they go with the most athletic CB. Jones can blanket a receiver and return kicks. With the depth at the position, however, I would not be entirely surprised to see Williams go here anyway. Rolle and PacMan may be flipped, but close enough, and I think Jones'versatility help.
7. Minnesota Vikings - Mike Williams, WR USC | The Vikings are idiots if they think any receiver can cover the production and fear of Randy Moss. While Williams wil be a good posession receiver, I don't see him being the worst threat. Unless he proves he can run like mad after the catch (like T.O.), he will be no better than a more mature, Keyshawn Johnson. Solid, but never truly dominant.
8. Arizona Cardinals - Cedric Benson, RB Texas | Unless Benson runs a 4.3 40, he will drop here. While there is a possibility of Aaron Rodgers going here instead, I think Benson gets the nod. Kurt Warner will be of service for at least a year, and they will do much better with a stud RB. Benson can carry a heavy load, and take a lot of pressure off Warner. He is the safest of all RBs, but with the most limited upside. The Cards are much better off this year if they make this pick instead of a QB.
9. Washington Redskins - Antrel Rolle, CB Miami (FL) | The Redskins announced that they are mostly done in free agency, and that has an impact here. They wanted a corner, but will draft a good one here instead. Rolle may not be the fastest, but he is very physical and has great technique. He can blitz and take out running backs with ease and will only enhance one of the best defenses of 2004.
10. Detroit Lions - Erasmus James, DE Wisconsin | They need help on the defensive side of the ball this time, and will need someone who can get to the QB. James is one of the better DEs and if healthy, can easily produce 10+ sacks a year. I did think they would look hard at Thomas Davis, but since they signed Kennoy Kennedy, they will look at the other need. He is not quite a safe pick though with his injuries, so maybe someone like Spears or Cody go here instead. For some reason, when I see James, I also see Andre Wadsworth (Cards, 1998).
11. Dallas Cowboys - Shawne Merriman, LB Maryland | As a diehard Boys fan, I pray Merriman is not taken by the Lions or a team wanting to move up. I really think Parcells is waiting to announce which defense they will use until this pick here and a possible trade with the Saints. Merriman is a perfect strongside 3-4 linebacker that can get 10+ sacks and 100+ tackles a year. With the possible trade for Darren Howard, I think Dallas will play like last year, 4-3 base but with a lot of 3-4. Either way, Merriman will fill the LB and DE need with one pick. He is a bigger Terrell Suggs and will be defensive rookie of the year.
12. San Diego Chargers (From NYG) - Thomas Davis, S Georgia | This one is a toss-up between Davis and Marcus Spears. But Davis will complement the Chargers' D real nice. They don't have Rodney Harrison anymore, but need a big, physical presence in the secondary. Davis will hit you hard and make receiver know where he is at on the field. Not quite Roy Williams or Sean Taylor, but will be effective nonetheless.
13. Houston Texans - Alex Barron, OT Florida State | How many more years will David Carr have to pick himself off the ground? The Texans need defensive help, but the playmakers are gone. Barron can fill the left tackle position that has been pitiful since Tony Boselli retired. Carr could jump to the next level with Barron's help. This pick should be a lock, especially after they just tried so hard to land Orlando Pace.
14. Carolina Panthers - Troy Williamson, WR South Carolina | The Panther could not go wrong with Heath Miller here, but I think they choose a big, explosive receiver in Williamson. He has been rising up draft boards lately, and will try to fill the vacated #1 WR position next to Steve Smith. I am not so high on Williamson and think he has the best potential to be a bust. He has the size and speed, but did not do a whole lot for South Carolina. I think he mirrors the hype and maybe production of another first-rounder in Denver's Ashlie Lelie. Personally, I would choose Miller and nab a decent WR in round #2.
15. Kansas City Chiefs - Carlos Rogers, CB Auburn | Everyone knows the Chiefs' secondary is horrible and needs help. Rogers can do just that and be a playmaker. He is a big corner, but proved he has great speed, running in the 4.3s 40. He matured and perfected his technique this past year at Auburn and will start from day 1 in training camp. Has the ability to shut down one side of the field.
16. New Orleans Saints - Channing Crowder, LB Florida | Their search for a real good linebacker continues and will land them Crowder. While certainly not the best LB in the past few drafts, he can step in and contribute right away. He may have to play on special teams for a bit, but should eventually slip into the starting lineup and be a solid player for many years. If Crowder had been patient in school (like many athletes should, minus Leinart) he would have been a much higher pick next year if he progressed even a little.
17. Cincinnati Bengals - Travis Johnson, DT Florida St. | The Bengals are on the way up and need help from the defense. The problem is in the front-seven and in particular, the tackles. Johnson is the best one available and can help the run defense a lot. He may not put much pressure on the QBs, but will allow the other linemen and linebacker to move to the ball easier.
18. Minnesota Vikings - Dan Cody, DE Oklahoma | This pick, I admit is anyone's guess. I honestly don't know where the Vikings should go. They did need defensive help, but addressed that in free agency. I don't think they really need to pick a DE here, but it is for the best value. They might look at Jammal Brown or the tackle from Washington (Khalif Barnes?)
19. St. Louis Rams - Jammal Brown, OT Oklahoma | Ram officials will probably use up the entire 15 minutes for this pick. They could pick up an excellent backup QB and future starter in Aaron Rodgers, but Marc Bulger is not that old and has shown he is an effective QB. On the other hand, Brown solidifies the right side of the line and can plow holes for Steven Jackson. In the end, it will come down to winning now instead of building for the future.
20. Dallas Cowboys (from Buf) - Mark Clayton, WR Oklahoma | The Cowboys are hoping that Jammal Brown will fall to them here (if so, he is a Cowboys), but will not have that option. Many believe they will choose a DE like Dan Cody, which would not be a bad idea, but if they already have Merriman from earlier, they could go with something else here. Clayton is one of the best "run-after-catch" WRs in years and would be a perfect #2 receiver. Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson are getting old, and Clayton can bridge the gap to another new starter. He will help form the most diverse (posession/speed/deep/screen/etc.) wide receivers in the entire NFL. Make these two picks and Dallas is a playoff team easily.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars - David Pollack, DE Georgia | There is one vacant spot on the Jag's D-line and Pollack will fill it nicely. Marcus Stroud and John Henderson will eat the block and allow Cody one on one access to the QB. Add that to his never-ending motor and the Jags will have an even better defense (if that is possible) in 2005. Pollack is an undersized DE, but he is super productive and will not have to worry about the double-teams.
22. Baltimore Ravens - Marcus Spears, DE LSU | The Ravens better hope they get Plaxico Buress in free agency because there are no good WRs left in this draft. Unless they reach for a bust, they will pick someone who can help and start on defense. Spears would fit great in a 3-4 defense, but I hear the Ravens are moving back to the 4-3. Either way, Spears will take the strongside and be a run-stopping force. He will not get many sacks in this defense, but will contribute to Terrell Suggs' and Ray Lewis' totals. The other possibility is Khalif Barnes at tackle. The Ravens' D doesn't need near as much help as the offense, but Spears is better value.
23. Seattle Seahawks - Matt Roth, DE Iowa | Roth may not be a supestar, and the Seahawks might need some corner help now that Ken Lucas left. The D-line was an issue though (and LB) so they can address it best here. Roth had a great Senior Bowl and could easily be a 5-10 sacks a year guy, but never any more. Just like Grant Wistrom.
24. Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers, QB California | I do not see how this could be really possible, but looking at the teams ahead of the Packers and I don't see any needs for QB. What once looked like the #1 pick, Rodgers will fall hard. The only other teams that may bite are the Rams and Saints. It might be a good idea to move up past the Rams or Saints just in case, but he might fall here anywhere. The Pack will have their replacement for Favre finally. This very well could be the biggest steal of the draft.
25. Denver Broncos - Shaun Cody, DT USC | Denver will be playing in the 3-4 this year and will need some new DEs. Cody is listed as a tackle, but is not big enough for the nose spot. Instead, he can use the athleticism to pressure QBs and help stop the run. I really like the USC tackles and think they will both do well in the NFL.
26. New York Jets - Justin Miller, CB Clemson | The Jets, to me, seem average on both sides of the ball. They don\'t have weaknesses, but no strengths really either. Since that is the case, they will go with someone who can help solidify the defense. Miller is a good corner who can fit in the Cover 2 scheme and do well. While not exactly a playmaker, he will make the D a little tougher.
27. Atlanta Falcons - Elton Brown, OG Virginia | If Vick refuses to ever be a QB and wants to always dance around the field, he will need some better blockers. Elton Brown is the best guard available and can punch holes for the Falcons great running game.
28. San Diego Chargers - Antaaj Hawthorne, DT Wisconsin | The Chargers can go anywhere with this pick, but Hawthorn is a good value. He could fill the DE nicely in their 3-4 scheme. He will never be a dominating DE, but a real solid one that will contribute to one of the best defenses in the NFL.
29. Indianapolis Colts - Marlin Jackson, CB Michigan | I would want to pick Mike Patterson of USC here, but I think he can be picked in round 2. Instead, the Colts must address their defensive problems with a good corner who can be a playmaker Jackson has good speed, but may find himself having to use it too often to catch up. Solid #2 corner, but for the Colts, #1.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Heath Miller, TE Virginia | They may look at Corey Webster here, but will go with the best tight end in the draft. A threat of a TE is in trend right now and it would not hurt for Big Ben to have one for himself. It may hurt that he is not the greatest run-blocker, but that is what they said about Jason Witten of Dallas and he learned nicely. The same growing pains may be with Miller, but he is worth it. Good pick here.
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Vernand Morency, RB Oklahoma St. | Brian Westbrook is no more than a glorified third-down back. He is a great all-purpose player, but the Eagles need someone who can carry the rock and have opposing defenses put more men in the box. That problem was evident in the Super Bowl. It will be a tough choice between Morency and JJ Arington, but Morency will get the nod for his quickness and size.
32. New England Patriots - Corey Webster, CB LSU | Enough talk about dynasty, this is the year the ship sinks. They need plenty help along the O-line, but the "genius" will be positive he can put undrafted rookies and seventh rounders in to fill the holes. Their other need is at corner where they are vulnerable. Duane Starks looks nice chowds, but he is glass and will break down. Someone like Webster is smart enough to appease the "genius" and do his part for the "team." Oh by the way, the 90s Cowboys would have destroyed this so-called dynasty, so enough with any comparisons. Dallas won 3 in 4 and should have been 4 in a row had Emmitt not had a bum hamstring and the refs had called interference on Deion against Irvin (HOFer). Pats barely scrapped by and should not have had a single one. The heck with the tuck rule, an in-bounds kickoff gives win to Panthers, and a smarter coach/QB who know how to run a 2-minute offense gives the win to the Eagles. The feat was great, but they are barely in the top 10 teams of all time. 1-90s Cowboys, 2-70s Steelers, 3-60s Packers, 4-80s 49ers, 5-72 Dolphins, 6-50s Browns, 7-85 Bears, 8-90s Bills (that's right), 9-2000s Patriots, 10-2000 Ravens. That's it folks. I will update my mock if there are significant trades or free agency signing. Feel free to e-mail me to discuss topics.
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