Mock draft IV (work in progress)

[cubuffsman78]

The Fall of Stafford mock isn't how I really think the draft will go. Just a projection for Stafford's fall that was done a couple weeks ago and I needed to get it released as I had been thinking about it.

You'll see major changes in this one.

I'm not releasing it on the main FFJ site, but it is what I'm working on at the moment. My plans are to release one final mock before the draft, which will be a seven round projection. Here are two for now.

1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
He's the pick for now. It's a mistake, which means new faces, same outcome for Detroit.

2 Rams Jason Smith OT Baylor
Rams finally get the OT they desperately need.

3 Chiefs Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas
Lack of pass rush is arguably biggest need. Switch to 3-4 makes Orakpo valuable in multiple schemes.

4 Seahawks Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
Call it a steal. Seattle gets best player in draft at No. 4. He takes over for Julian Peterson.

5 Browns Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
I believe Braylon Edwards is as good as gone. Crabtree could be the pick even if Edwards isn't traded, though.

6 Bengals Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
Bengals fill their biggest need with Monroe. Maybe Palmer can have more than an average of 2.13 seconds to throw the ball next season.

7 Raiders Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri
Speed is sexy. Al Davis likes sexy. Trades for Mark Sanchez could happen here.

8 Jaguars Mark Sanchez QB USC
Jags are doing due diligence to get Sanchez. I think they might be tempted by some organizations, for example... Washington or Tampa Bay.

9 Packers B.J. Raji DT Boston College
Raji is slipping due to a positive drug test. Could fall past this point, too. No further than 12 to Broncos, though.

10 49ers Aaron Maybin LB Penn State
Niners need a pass rush and Maybin might be the most explosive defender off the edge in the draft.

11 Bills Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
Ayers' stock is still soaring and Buffalo has a history of reaching for players. (See Donte Whitner.) It's really not that bad of a reach, though.

12 Broncos Malcolm Jenkins DB Ohio State
Yes. Jenkins ran a slow 40. Get over it. There isn't a DB with better technique in this draft and that can make up for a lot.

13 Redskins Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
Redskins have two pressing needs -- DE and OT. I think Oher is a much better prospect than Everette Brown at this point.

14 Saints Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
Could be Chris Wells here, but I feel really good about the Saints going Moreno or Wells in order to make Reggie Bush more relevant. Saints don't pick again until Round 4. Waiting might not be an option.

15 Texans Clay Matthews LB USC
Matthews has looked great in pass coverage drills throughout the draft season and has emerged as a better pick than his teammates. He can play OLB in a 4-3 or 3-4.

16 Chargers Tyson Jackson DE LSU
I think this is a reach, but San Diego doesn't have a ton of needs. Replacing Igor Olshansky is a big one, though.

17 Jets Percy Harvin WR Florida
Harvin also tested positive for marijuana. I don't think it will knock him that far down boards.

18 Broncos (Chi) Everette Brown LB Florida State
Some will say this is too low for him. I think it's about right. I've seen lower projections of Brown.

19 Buccanneers Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss
Jerry is tough to project. Could see him in late first round. He fills a need for the Bucs, though.

20 Lions (DAL) Andre Smith OT Alabama
This couldn't work out better for the Lions, getting one of the top OTs to protect Stafford's backside.

21 Eagles Chris Wells RB Ohio State
I like Moreno more for Philly, but Wells is available and could be a solid addition for the Eagles.

22 Vikings Vontae Davis CB Illinois
This is more in line with where I believe Davis will go.

23 Patriots Brian Cushing LB USC
Cushing is great at the point of attack and he'll get to show that off in New England. Many scouts think he's a two-down LB, though, with a lack of pass coverage skills.

24 Falcons Darius Butler CB UConn
Don't be surprised if Butler is the second CB off the board.

25 Dolphins Rey Maualuga LB USC
Maualuga is falling with injury concerns. He'd be great in Miami's 3-4 scheme, though.

26 Ravens Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
Lots of value with this pick for Baltimore.

27 Colts Donald Brown RB UConn
Brown is another climber and could go earlier. Indy needs a better option for the oft-injured Joseph Addai.

28 Eagles (CAR) Eben Britton OT Arizona
Philly needs to replace William Thomas and Jon Runyan. Britton could fill in for either one.

29 Giants Brian Robiskie WR Ohio State
Robiskie is still a bit under the radar. I like him better than Nicks and think he's the perfect replacement for Burress, mostly because he's low maintenance with a great skill set.

30 Titans Evander Hood DT Missouri
Hood won't fill in completely for Haynesworth. Those are huge shoes to fill. He's a step in the right direction, though.

31 Cardinals Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
Size is the only thing holding Smith back from being a top 20 pick.

32 Steelers Alex Mack OC Cal
I think Mack could go higher, but don't believe he'll fall any lower than this.

Second round
1 Lions James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State
This is a steal for the Lions. Laurinaitis has been overanalyzed. He'll be a fantastic pro.

2 Patriots (KC) Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State
Pettigrew is still the undisputed top TE. It's not a big need for the Pats, but a luxury and a value.

3 Rams Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina
Nicks put up a red flag by adding a lot of weight between the combine and his pro day. He's still go the best hands in the draft and the Rams need a possession guy opposite Donnie Avery.

4 Browns Sean Smith DB Utah
Smith could play FS or CB. Browns need both.

5 Seahawks Louis Delmas S Western Michigan
Delmas is considered the best legit safety in a weak class at the position.

6 Bengals Michael Johnson DE Ga. Tech
Johnson is a workout warrior, but his production is a big question mark.

7 Jaguars Kenny Britt WR Rutgers
Britt is a big, strong possession WR with a knack for getting plenty of YAC.

8 Raiders Max Unger OC Oregon
Unger could be an OG or OC, depending on systems. I see him as an OC for the Raiders.

9 Packers Connor Barwin LB Cincinnati
Barwin has sprinted up draft boards and gives the Packers a raw talent at OLB in the 3-4. The skill set needs developing, but the motor is relentless.

10 Bills Jared Cook TE South Carolina
Cook will stretch the middle of the field better than any other TE available.

11 49ers LeSean McCoy RB Pitt
McCoy is still a home run threat. He fell due to injuries. He'll be a nice compliment to Gore.

12 Dolphins (WAS) Larry English LB Northern Illinois
English's stock dove after rising at the Senior Bowl. I think he'll be a nice contributor for Miami.

13 Giants (NO) William Beatty OT UConn
After WR, OT is probably the Giants biggest need.

14 Texans Ron Brace DT Boston College
The Travis Johnson experiment is about over. Brace is a big body to replace him.

15 Patriots (SD) D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt
Moore is a playmaker, who is falling because of 40 times. NE will get over that. Get ready for another Asante Samuel.

16 Broncos Clint Sintim LB Virginia
Denver needs to load up on players for the 3-4 scheme and one can never have too many LBs for the set.

17 Bears Duke Robinson OG Oklahoma
Bears need OTs more, but interior OL is a must for this team as well. Robinson fits their power scheme.

18 Browns (TB) James Casey TE Rice
Casey is a diverse athlete, who can replace Kellen Winslow and provide in other facets of the game.

19 Cowboys Patrick Chung S Oregon
Cowboys should target Chung, who is one of the more underrated players in this draft. He'll be able to compete for the SS safety job immediately.

20 Jets Josh Freeman QB Kansas State
Some will call this a dive for Freeman. I could see him falling further. Why take a QB, who won't be ready for two seasons, when there will be NFL-ready signal-callers available next year?

21 Eagles Eric Wood OC Louisville
Wood is badly overlooked in this draft.

22 Vikings William Moore S Missouri
Moore has had a roller coaster of a draft season. Teams finally believe he can play safety in the NFL again and aren't looking to move him to LB.

23 Falcons Marcus Freeman LB Ohio State
OLB is a huge need for Atlanta and Freeman is perfect to fill it. I think he could contend for defensive rookie of the year.

24 Dolphins Jarron Gilbert DE San Jose State
Gilbert is raw, but he's a fantastic athlete with elite size. Perfect for a 3-4 DL.

25 Ravens Jairus Byrd CB Oregon
Byrd is quietly soaring up draft boards.

26 Patriots Jamon Meredith OT South Carolina
Meredith is a bit undersized, but has great feet.

27 Panthers Fili Moala DT USC
Panthers like their DTs pretty big and Moala has the frame for the scheme.

28 Giants Tyrone McKenzie LB South Florida
Giants take care of their top three needs in succession.

29 Colts Sen'Derrick Marks DT Auburn
Marks is a good fit for the Colts attack scheme on the DL.

30 Titans Louis Murphy WR Florida
Murphy is very underrated and is has more potential than any other Titan WR on the roster.

31 Cardinals Ian Johnson RB Boise State
Johnson has opened eyes with his workouts. Had he not started sharing carries his senior year, he'd be going higher than this.

32 Steelers Mike Mickens CB Cincinnati
Mickens is a technically sound CB, who was part of one of the better secondaries in college football last season.

[kevmvp]

I dont have a problem with the Jets drafting either a QB or WR in one of the first two rounds but I dont see them taking both. I think people overate the Jets defense even on paper. That defensive line is awful. If Sheppard is the Sheppard of 08 then the Jets still have nobody to play opposite Revis. I would look for the Jets to draft either a DE or CB in the first or WR while taking the other in the second.

I like the Robiskie to the Giants pick. He is definitley a guy who fly's under the radar.

I think Raji, Cushing, and Matthews will all fall some after their positive drug tests.

I dont know about Pettigrew falling to the Pats in round 2. Pats have Watson and signed Baker anyway. He would probably be BPA so its possible I guess.

[bowler533]

If Denver had this draft I would be so pumped. I love every pick! However, I still think Denver will target ILB before OLB unless one player just jumps off the page for them.

The rest of the mock is really good too. Nice job and good research.


However, when you are doing your 7 round mock please remember the following players:
Nate Davis, QB, Ball State
Darius Hill, TE, Ball State
Chris Miller, P, Ball State (former All-American)
Robert Brewster, T, Ball State
Gonzola Barringa, DE/LB, Ball State

Theres a LB that has declared as well but I'm not going to lie, I don't know him name.

Thanks

[cubuffsman78]

Actually went through the fourth round and projected Nate Davis to the Rams there. I have Darius Hill going in the 4-5 round range. I'll be considering Brewster and Miller in the late rounds.

As for the positive drug tests, the NFL has denied the report of Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing testing positive for steroids.

Here's a blurb from the LA Times about these reports.

The NFL rumor mill is at full tilt this time of year. So much so that USC Coach Pete Carroll apparently thought it necessary to quell the attention sparked by a blurb that linebackers Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews tested positive for steroids at the NFL scouting combine in February. Here's what Carroll had to say in a statement released on USC's website. "These rumors are absolutely false," Carroll said. "If they were found positive, Clay and Cush would have been notified three weeks ago, which they weren't and all of the NFL teams would have been notified too, which they weren't." Carroll said he spoke with the NFL testing service and verified that both players tested clean. "They're both men of outstanding character and they never tested positive for anything here," Carroll said. "This is an [sic] major example of irresponsible reporting, and the site that published this report should be ashamed of themselves." - Gary Klein, The LA Times

The Website who posted this was called NFLDraftBible.com. Here's the NFL's statement:

“Neither the 32 clubs nor the league office know the results of drug or steroid tests taken at the 2009 Combine. The independent medical advisors who administer the tests have notified in writing those players and only those players who tested positive at the Combine.
“Unfortunately, rumors about draft eligible players, including rumors about test results, begin to circulate every year at this time. Many of these rumors are circulated for self-serving reasons and they are terribly unfair to the players and their families.”

I do not think testing positive for pot will hurt players significantly. Percy Harvin and Vontae Davis also tested positive for marijuana. I just don't think that particular drug shocks NFL organizations any longer. An example of this is the Niners not canceling their visit with Raji after the positive tests. They still consider him at No. 10 overall. I still don't think he'll be taken any later than No. 12 to Denver.

[porky88]

I really don't have a lot of red flags. I have disagreements such as I think the runnning backs will drop. I think they're all overrated and Donald Brown might be the best when all said and done. I just don't think any of these backs are in the same line as some of the past first rounders.

I don't think Andre Smith is going to fall that far. I think he's to good on film to fall that far. If you take everything he's done this off season and set it aside, Smith is still the best tackle when you put the pads on. I'm not saying I'd take him very high, but I think someone is going too. I think Cincinnati could and I certainly think San Francisco would as they need a run blocking right tackle and Smith is a perfect fit. Washington would consider him as well. San Diego needs a RT too. I think Smith might end up being Leonard Davis. Someone will take him and make him a tackle and he'll struggle, but move him inside to guard and he'll find a home.

I like Orakpo, but KC is going to take the BPA. Curry will find a place in the 3-4. He's the type of player that you can build an entire defense around. I think Eugene Monroe makes sense too. The Haley, Piloi, and Groh connection is undeniable.

I also don't think Raji, Matthews, and Cushing are going to fall. That stuff is overrated. It's really not about performance enhancers or marijuana. Teams tend to look the other way. I think it's more about will he be suspended and is this guy smart enough to stay out of trouble. Is he Luis Castillo or is he Marshawn Lynch?

[Saint33]

I"m too tired to analyze this right now, but I'll just say that I hate both Vikings picks. Vontae Davis reportedly tested positive for marijuana, and even if that's not true, the Vikings front office has shown very little interest in him. They have however shown interest in Darius Butler and Alphonso Smith. The Vikings won't draft another safety early in the draft after they took Tyrell Johnson last year, and I don't think Moore is even close to a 2nd round prospect at this point.

[mrdv1]

i like this a lot better than the stafford fall mock

didnt look at round 2 but no major complaints with one.

i would like it though if you could elaborate more on why KC would go Orakpo over Curry in detail

[cubuffsman78]

There are question about how well Curry's skill set translates to certain schemes. We've all heard the lack of pass rush theory, making him an unlikely selection to play OLB in a 3-4 or in a 4-3 scheme that blitzes its LBs a lot like the Giants do sometimes or the Eagles. Those two teams obviously don't have a play on him, but it's just an example.

I don't think the Chiefs would plan on him playing outside, either. They would consider him an ILB. Of all the positions for the 3-4, I think KC is set at ILB. They signed DeMorrio Williams, who will play inside. There's Mike Vrabel who could fit there, but will probably go outside cause of need. I see Derrick Johnson as an inside backer in the 3-4, not outside.

Who do they have to really rush the passer in a 3-4 or a 4-3? Tamba Hali is nice, but he needs help. Orakpo is not a reach at No. 3. It's a good value for him and he fills a much larger need than Curry, even if Curry is the BPA. I simply think it's a better fit.

[pep9993]

Dallas professes that they will take the best player available, last year it worked out and they had a great rookie class. In your mock I see OG Herman Johnson as TBPA @ 51.

[pep9993]

This mock is pretty solid I just have a few differences. I'm staying with your BJ Raji at #1 but if he does fall I can't see him getting by the Browns. He can split time at the nose tackle position, this move could really strengthen their 3-4 defense in the 4th quater of games.

Seahawks have a new coach who is defensive minded so I can see why you have Curry going here. He is also the top LB this year by most peoples opinions, however I don't think Seattle will have another loosing season for the next few years so with keeping that in mind I can see them taking Sanchez or Stafford. Hasselback is a good QB but the team needs to look toward the future and Hasselback would be a good mentor for Sanchez or Stafford.

The skins need to give Portis some help so I suggest that they take Knowshon Moreno.

Donald Brown seems like a better fit for Philly for what they like their backs to do.

To me the best LB in the draft is Rey Maualuga. He's a thumper who plays down hill. I just don't see how anyone can put Mathews and Cushing into his class. I like him better than Curry to be truthful. I know that he might have to come off the field on third downs but I'll tell you this, there will be no running on first and second. Mathews and Cushing are overated and I can't see how Laurinitis's stock has fallen. Clint Sintim is at least the second best pass rusher in this draft right behind Maybin. I think he'll go in the first round.