First mock of the year

[cubuffsman78]

This is my first mock of the year. I'm about to link it up on the FFJ main website as well.

The biggest omission you'll notice is Chris Wells. Call it a hunch, but I think he's headed back to Ohio State.

Comments and suggestions are welcome. As always, be ready to back up your opinions because you know I'll be able to support mine.

Like others, I was forced to put this into two posts.

1. Detroit Lions
Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
There isn’t much the Detroit Lions don’t need. That’s probably fair to say about a team that finish 0-16. Smith grades out high on film and before the Lions grab a QB, they might want to think about how to protect one.

2. St. Louis Rams
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Much like the New Orleans Saints three drafts ago, the Rams have an opportunity to take the highest rated prospect in the draft. WR is actually a bit of a need for the Rams. Torry Holt is aging and Donnie Avery will only be a deep threat, which makes him a perfect compliment to Crabtree, who could quickly become one of the league’s elite players.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Tyler Thigpen was a pleasant surprise down the stretch, but is he really the long-term answer? Doubtful. If Bradford comes out, he should be the top QB prospect over Matt Stafford. Bradford is more consistent and a better all-around athlete than Bradford.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Many are placing a different OT, namely Eugene Monroe, in this spot. I’m not that high on Monroe. Oher is more of a proven player and could fill in at RT for now in Seattle, then switch over the LT once Walter Jones, who is definitely on the downside of his career, retires.

5. Cleveland Browns
Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
Maybin could potentially be the best tweener prospect in the short history of the term. He’s incredibly quick off the ball, but is a bit undersized for a 4-3 DE, weighing in around 240 pounds. Cleveland is in desperate need of a pass rush, registering just 17 sacks this season.

6. Cincinnati Bengals
Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
Apparently having a lack of a pass rush is a theme in Ohio as the Bengals possess the same problem, posting only 17 sacks this season. Orakpo was the Lombardi Trophy winner for a reason. He’s a fantastic pass rusher and solid against the run as well.

7. Oakland Raiders
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Oakland has needs all over the field, but none more pressing than along the DL. Giving the Raiders the top player at either DT or DE makes sense then. McCoy is the only DT, who rates this high, making him worth a fairly large premium for teams needing interior linemen.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars
Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
A disappointing season can be laid largely on the OL and a suddenly underachieving defense. Curry can play inside or outside, but would probably fit best on the exterior in the Jags’ scheme, allowing Daryl Smith to move to the middle.

9. Green Bay Packers
Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Don’t be surprised if the Packers target McCoy if he comes out – he is only a sophomore after all. If he’s gone like in this scenario, then expect Green Bay to still bring in help for one its lines, offensive or defensive. Of available prospects, Brown grades out the highest on my board. He’s constantly disrupting backfields and can seem not blockable at times.

10. San Francisco 49ers
Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
With Mike Singletary being a defensive mind, the Niners could potentially go with the top available defender. The franchise QB is needed , though, because Shaun Hill is nothing more than a very nice backup option. I don’t deem Stafford NFL-ready like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were this season. He’s a bit too erratic. The tools are there, however, and he’s got scouts drooling because of his size and throwing motion.

11. Buffalo Bills
James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
I actually rank Rey Maualuga higher, but Laurinaitis is a more versatile linebacker with the ability to play inside or outside, making him interchangeable with Bills LB Paul Posluszny.

12. Denver Broncos
Taylor Mays, S, USC
Mays is a steal here. He is definitely a top 10 talent. However, it’s hard to find a great spot for him. Denver would love the chance to solidify its defensive backfield with one of the best athletes ever in the draft. Mays is going to be a combine all-star.

13. Washington Redskins
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
I don’t see Jenkins as a top 10 pick, but he is the top CB available in this year’s draft. He probably would have been the top CB in last season’s draft as well. Washington needs help vs. the pass whether it be a top pass rusher or a shut down corner. Jenkins is better than any DE available here.

14. New Orleans Saints
Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Jonathan Vilma is a free agent and it’s feasible the Saints don’t bring him back. Even if they do, Vilma could move outside to make room for the ferocious and playmaking Maualuga.

15. Houston Texans
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Maclin would be the answer to finding a compliment opposite Andre Johnson and could form one of the greatest playmaking WR duos in the league’s history. Houston definitely has needs on defense, such as help in the secondary and at the DE opposite Mario Williams. Maclin is too good to pass up this late.

[cubuffsman78]

16. San Diego Chargers
Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Here’s another OT I prefer over Eugene Monroe. Britton just appears more comfortable in pass protection and could be a solid RT opposite Marcus McNeill.

17. New York Jets
D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
Moore is one of the best pure athletes in this draft. He’s a playmaker at CB and an elite return specialist. He’s got a chance to score every time he touches the ball. The Jets are set at one CB with Darrelle Revis. Ty Law is on the other side and he’s past his prime. Dwight Lowery is a nice nickel option and nothing more.

18. Chicago Bears
Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss
Had it not been for an injury-plagued season, Hardy would have put up phenomenal numbers. He only played in eight games, but recorded 8.5 sacks. The Bears defense didn’t have the same prowess it had become known for and a lack of a consistent pass rush was a big part of the reason why.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
This position is a bit crowded for the Bucs with Earnest Graham, Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams. Williams is a huge injury risk and might never be the same back. Dunn, while still productive, started to show his age at the end of the season. That leaves Graham, who would be better in a package-deal alongside a gamebreaker like Moreno.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas)
Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
There are currently three QBs who grade as first-round picks. Sanchez is the last of the trio. Since Detroit passed on the franchise QB with the first pick, Sanchez makes sense here.

21. Arizona Cardinals
LeSean McCoy, RB, Pitt
The Cardinals are in desperate need of a change-of-pace back to compliment the power running of Tim Hightower. Plus, Edgerrin James has said he probably won’t be back with Arizona next season, which is a shock to no one. He technically hasn’t been with the team most of the season anyway. McCoy is a home run threat each and every time the ball is in his hands.

22. Philadelphia Eagles
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Gresham is talented enough to be taken in the top 15. He’s tall, fast and a fantastic route runner. He’ll also catch the ball in traffic almost effortlessly. L.J. Smith is a free agent this season and the Eagles haven’t had him involved in the game plan like they did in the past.

23. Minnesota Vikings
Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
The Vikings have a need at RT and Monroe is capable of filling that void. Many feel he’s a top 5 pick, but I’m yet to be sold on that.

24. New England Patriots
Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
The Pats still need to replace Asante Samuel and Davis has great value here. They could also value Brian Cushing, who has the type of versatility coveted by this organization at the LB position.

25. Miami Dolphins
Brian Cushing, LB, USC
Cushing might be the most overlooked prospect in this class. He’s big and quick, capable of rushing the passer, defending the run or playing pass coverage. He gives Miami the option to put him at OLB in either the 3-4 or the 4-3 defense, which the Dolphins have been utilizing both.

26. Atlanta Falcons
Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Jerry has the ability to dominate a football game from the DT position. The Falcons had a player like that in recent memory named Rod Coleman. Jerry reminds me of a healthy and focused Coleman.

27. Baltimore Ravens
Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
The Ravens, more than perhaps any other team in the NFL, need some weapons for their quarterback to throw to. Harvin is a big-play receiver and has great value at this spot.

28. New York Giants
Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
There’s an immediate need at OLB for the G-men, which Spikes could fill even though he’s played on the inside in college. Eventually, Spikes would take over for Antonio Pierce at his natural position.

29. Pittsburgh Steelers
Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma
The Steelers are still needing a good replacement for Alan Faneca. For whatever reason, Faneca’s departure hasn’t been linked the downfall of the Steelers run game this season. Robinson is the top OG in the draft and is capable of playing either the right or left side. He’s perfect for the power blocking scheme the Steelers prefer to use.

30. Indianapolis Colts
Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Defensive tackle is probably the biggest need for the Colts. However, the only tackle worth this spot is B.J. Raji and he doesn’t fit the Colts scheme. CB is definitely the next largest need and Smith is fantastic value at this spot.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina)
Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Smith would be the first time a player from Baylor has been taken in the first round since 1996, when DT Daryl Gardener was selected by the Miami Dolphins. The Bears emerged as a team capable of pulling off an upset in the Big 12 this season and Smith was a big part of that turnaround. The Eagles need to find a replacement for an aging Jon Runyan and William Thomas, since Winston Justice, who was drafted out of USC four years ago, is yet to pan out.

32. Tennessee Titans
Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
No player helped his stock more with a fantastic bowl performance than Nicks. He made circus catch after circus catch while pulling in eight receptions for 217 yards and three touchdowns. It’s time for the Titans to finally bring in a receiver who is a threat to stretch the field. Nicks turned out to be one of the best deep threats in the country this season.

[bowler533]

I agree with alot of your picks. I question St. Louis taking a WR at #2. They seem to have adequate talent there. Its too still early to tell, so who knows.

Also, I agree on your analysis of Eugene Monroe, but I would also like your input on LT Michael Oher. Watching him as of late, he seems to have heavy feet in my mind and can be beat on the snap by a speed rusher on the outside. Just my opinion, but let me know what you think about Oher.

I love Denver taking a safety. How high do you see William Moore going? I didn't see him in your mock.

And I have to say it because I love my Cardinals, where's Nate Davis? I think one of the top 3 returns hopefully prompting Nate Davis to the third spot (and higher then Freeman). Its my feeling with Nate is that he will go pro. I'm hearing that his close friends are saying that Nate is gone.

Good mock. I enjoy reading your mock because of your unique projections.

I've been promoting Darius Hill, TE for some time now. How much did his stock slip with his sub-par senior year?

I know you have had enough of the Ball State bias, but one more question. Gonzalo Barinaga, DE, Ball State is a solid athlete but never played alot. Scout him a bit and tell me what you think. He's undersized a bit, but take a look if you could.

[black19]

This is probably about as good a draft that one can create at this point in time. The only thing I don't like is the assumption that some of the players you have being drafted, actually enter the draft. I see Maybin playing another year (or at least he should because he needs to get bigger) and I would be surprised in Sanchez leaves USC.

That being said, I bet SF and KC don't go QB in the first. SF has to be scared of drafting another QB in the first round and I really like Singletary to go defense this in the first round as you mentioned. KC, to me it depends on whether or not Herm keeps his job. If he stays, Thigpen stays. If he's on the out, then expect the slate to be wiped clean and KC to draft a QB.

What makes you so sure Detroit won't take Crabtree? Oh, Millen is gone...

I actually wouldn't mind the 'Skins taking Jenkins, but I'd like to think they'd address the DL first. However, with Taylor on for another year they could probably get away with taking the CB. I'd prefer that they went OL though.

Finally, the only thing that bears mentioning to me is the Houston pick. I really have a hard time seeing them take a WR. They need to hit defense early and often in my opinion.

Good job!

[cubuffsman78]

Originally Posted by bowler533 I agree with alot of your picks. I question St. Louis taking a WR at #2. They seem to have adequate talent there. Its too still early to tell, so who knows. Also, I agree on your analysis of Eugene Monroe, but I would also like your input on LT Michael Oher. Watching him as of late, he seems to have heavy feet in my mind and can be beat on the snap by a speed rusher on the outside. Just my opinion, but let me know what you think about Oher. I love Denver taking a safety. How high do you see William Moore going? I didn't see him in your mock. And I have to say it because I love my Cardinals, where's Nate Davis? I think one of the top 3 returns hopefully prompting Nate Davis to the third spot (and higher then Freeman). Its my feeling with Nate is that he will go pro. I'm hearing that his close friends are saying that Nate is gone. Good mock. I enjoy reading your mock because of your unique projections. I've been promoting Darius Hill, TE for some time now. How much did his stock slip with his sub-par senior year? I know you have had enough of the Ball State bias, but one more question. Gonzalo Barinaga, DE, Ball State is a solid athlete but never played alot. Scout him a bit and tell me what you think. He's undersized a bit, but take a look if you could.

I just watched Michael Oher dominate Texas Tech's Brandon Williams who is a pure speed pass rusher. Williams got the best of him once or twice, but he owned him most of the game. I've liked Oher a lot since last season. I don't know that he'll be an elite LT in the NFL, but he's at least going to be a great RT. He will have to work on his feet some, but his work ethic is incredible. The only reason he didn't come out last season is because he felt he wasn't ready and wanted to work on more. He probably would have been a top 25 pick. That's not bad. He knew he could be better.

Davis To Return For Senior Season At Ball State - Sports News Story - WTOV Steubenville
The above is a link where Nate Davis says he's coming back to Ball State. Right now, that puts him on the not leaving list for me. If he comes out, I grade him as a mid-second round pick at worst.

Moore is a late first-early second round pick. I didn't see a need for him at the end of the first. Maybe Indy, but I like Smith more there.

I like Hill a lot too. There's a question about his speed. He's a little on the light side for a TE, so one would think he'd be faster, but scouts are doubting his speed right now. Fifth round? Maybe later right now. He needs a good combine/personal day.

I'll do some research on Barinoga and I'll watch for him in the GMAC. I'm not going to pretend to know of him cause I definitely don't.

Thanks for the compliments.

[cubuffsman78]

Originally Posted by black19 Finally, the only thing that bears mentioning to me is the Houston pick. I really have a hard time seeing them take a WR. They need to hit defense early and often in my opinion. Good job!

I see that as a value pick and it is a need, just not a major one. I really don't feel like Houston is in dire need of anything except maybe CB and it would be hard to pass on D.J. Moore at that point. It's hard to have Maclin slip. He's phenomenal and Houston has struggled to get a consistent compliment to Andre Johnson. I think Greg Hardy is a possibility right there as well.

Thanks for the compliment. I pondered Hardy for the 'Skins by the way, but I couldn't let Jenkins slip anymore. Again, a value pick.

[bowler533]

The Nate Davis link was December 6th. I think he goes pro. He has a daughter and girlfriend that are economic trouble. I think he leaves. I do agree that he is 2nd rounder.

Gonzo is #56 I believe. Hes a reserve so watch closely. He is a friend of mine and has always dreamed of playing in the NFL. I always thought 7th round or undrafted becuase he is terribly undersized.

I have seen alot of mocks with William Moore as a top 15, so it was interesting to where you had him.

[black19]

Originally Posted by cubuffsman78 I see that as a value pick and it is a need, just not a major one. I really don't feel like Houston is in dire need of anything except maybe CB and it would be hard to pass on D.J. Moore at that point. It's hard to have Maclin slip. He's phenomenal and Houston has struggled to get a consistent compliment to Andre Johnson. I think Greg Hardy is a possibility right there as well. Thanks for the compliment. I pondered Hardy for the 'Skins by the way, but I couldn't let Jenkins slip anymore. Again, a value pick.

Actually, after looking at the Skins cap numbers, I actually like the Jenkins pick a lot better. I have a feeling between Springs & Smoot, one (or both) could be gone and Hall will probably be pricey. Having Rogers as the only sure shot in my eyes is a little scary...

[porky88]

I could see Andre Smith going No. 1 overall, but it depends on who the Lions bring in as head coach. I could see them going after Matt Cassel and then taking Andre Smith or they could hire an offensive minded coach and draft Sam Bradford.

I think the Rams would probably try and move down if they can't get Smith, but if they're stuck there then Sam Bradford has to got be tempting especially with Marc Bugler's age and lack of production the last few seasons.

Michael Oher is just way to high for me. I know he had a great bowl game, but over the course of the season he was as up and down as any "elite" prospect in the country. I think he's going to free fall.

You think Maybin declares? I actually think he needs another year to bulk up for the NFL. If he does go, he and Brian Orakpo and throw in Everett Brown as well would make this the best tweener draft of all time in my opinion.

I think the Packers need at pass rusher as much as a DT. Popular pick will be DT because of the struggles they had against the run, but Ted Thompson is way to stubborn to give up on Justin Harrell so I suspect DE or OT.

Don't rule out a freak like Vontae Davis either.

Jon Gruden jumps all over Mark Sanchez in my opinion.

Love the LeSean McCoy to Arizona pick. It's one of few picks I feel very good about. Just makes sense.

Jason Smith is awful low in my opinion. I think he'll gain a lot of steam come draft day and be selected quite high.

[cubuffsman78]

The Rams are in the best position of the draft. We say that often about the No. 2 pick the past few years don't we? Crabtree is No. 1 on my board and he'll be hard to move from that spot. Smith is my No. 2, Bradford No. 3. I just think a similar scenario like Reggie Bush with the Saints could play out here. It is of course early and I don't mind trying a few different possibilities and seeing how each plays out.

Every thing depends on a heck of a whole lot right now with each and every pick. My goal when I do a mock, particularly this early, is for the projection to at least be a possibility. Then share some insight as to why and discuss.

I'm an Oher guy. I'm far from an Eugene Monroe guy. I think he's a little overrated. it's a Virginia factor to me. Everyone thinks Virginia and D'Brick along with Branden Albert, so Monroe gets there as well. When I've watched him, I haven't been astonished. There are times when Oher just wows me. I do think Oher is more of a RT in the NFL because he is an absolutely dominate run blocker. Of course, depending on how much Mora changes what Holmgren does, the Seahawks love dominant run blockers on their weak, or left, side.

I think Maybin is an incredible athlete and is a top 10 pick easily if he comes out. He could use some bulk, but he can just as easily get that in the NFL as he can in college. Cash in while your stock is high is my philosophy for potential draftees.

I think the Pack has to think DL in the first round. The need there is almost desperate. By far, it's the weakest part of the team.

I think Gruden could go Sanchez. He fits the system perfectly. Here's the thing, Gruden likes vets at the position, not rooks. I don't see Sanchez as a sure pick to Tampa if he's available. Gruden is weird with that position.

I've seen Jason Smith a lot and I've been shocked by some projections of him in the top 10. I like the guy a lot. I cheer for Baylor athletics pretty hardcore. It was my favorite college football team when I was growing up because I met legendary coach Grant Teaff when I was young and a Baylor game was my first live college football experience. I hope Smith fires up the board. Right now, I'm holding him behind some of the other guys. I do think Eben Britton is better and is probably the least hyped of top OTs in the draft mix right now. This is assuming Britton comes out of course.

Edit*** Right after I finished writing this, I found Britton has in fact declared early for the draft. This according to the Arizona Daily Star.