Post week 17 mock

[mrdv1]

Here's my first mock. Only round 1, with explanations. I'll release an update after the superbowl, and a 2 rounder after the probowl. I got a little lazy with the explanations at the end... o well. Note I have some people a little high and some a little low, but its where I think they will end up come draft day. Note i have to put it in 2 posts. Have at it...

1. Detroit Lions – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
It is definitely a toss up between Bradford and Stafford here, but one thing to me sets Bradford ahead – Intangibles. The guy is a winner. From his dive for the endzone play, to just hearing him speak, I believe the kid has got the guts to succeed in the NFL. The Lions need winners on a team that didn’t win a game, and Bradford gives them that. Not to mention the Heisman trophy winner has some pretty damn good skills as well.

2. St. Louis Rams – Malcom Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Very hard for me to not have them take an offensive tackle here, but when I look at it there is a lot more depth both on their team and in the draft at tackle than at corner. They can possibly land a guy like Black or Loadholt in round 2 also. Jenkins brings shutdown corner ability, as well as a ton of big game experience. He’s a playmaker, and in a division where the team you are looking to overtake has larry fitzgerlad at wr, it makes sense to get a lockdown guy to cover him.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
This is a team with many needs. When you look at the offense, they played well down the stretch with Thigpen at the healm, and so I think he gets another shot to prove he can be the guy. He has two great weapons in Bowe and Gonzo, so I think they pass on Crabtree. Then there’s the D. 31 in total yards, and 30th against the pass. Surtain can still play a bit, and Flowers is still young, so they opt to add a pass rusher. Orakpo will generate more pressure, helping the corners and allowing the DT’s to focus more on the run. He also fills a need. Day 1 starter.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Tough call here, because this pick could go in a few different directions. With their choice at OT however, they bring in Monroe. The running attack is lacking, and They seem to think they’re RB’s Perry and Benson can do the job, so they bring in a guy to open more holes. They move Levi Jones to the right side.

5. Seattle Seahawks – Taylor Mays, S, USC
I know Crabree this Crabtree that, as good as the guy is, and he is, I don’t like him top 5. Top 10 I can see, and yes, he would fit for Seattle. However, the Hawks passing game isn’t as bad as it looked with hasselbeck out all year. They can bring in WR’s via free agency and the later rounds. Their pass defense though, was atrocious. 32nd in the league. Trufant is a top corner, and Jennings/Wilson are ok on the other side. Safety, however, is terrible. Mays is the best in the draft, and the depth at safety is less than that of WR in this draft (same concept as st lou going CB vs. OT). I just think this helps them more and is the better pick for Seattle at this point.

6. Cleveland Browns – Aaron Curry, OLB Wake Forest
Comes into to learn under then replace McGinest as an OLB in the 3-4. People have been saying the secondary is a big problem for Cleveland, but I think they would be surprised to know that ranked 14th against the pass, and 28th against the run. Curry brings run support to help out that 28th ranking, but mainly brings a pass rush to help the secondary. The corners in Cleveland aren’t terrific, but good enough, or at least playing decent. The offense has to start helping out the defense for things to work better there. Curry also fills what I consider a need, because Wimbley hasn’t live dup to the hype, and Willie is old.

7. Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
The raiders need a lot of help in run defense, so don’t be surprised to see mauluga or laurinaitis here, but of course Al Davis goes with the glamour pick. I don’t like it, but it’s what I think will happen, not what should. The raiders pass offense was 32nd in the league, and javon walker seems washed up. It does make sense to give Russell a threat in the passing game.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
This to me came as almost a no brainer. The whole Peterson situation leaves a big hole on the inside, and when you play Tennessee twice a year, you have to stop the run to win the division. Rey is a flat out animal. The guy does have some anger issues, and gets over aggressive, but you have to love that about your middle linebacker. They’re supposed to be a little crazy. Physically he’s a beast as well.

9. Green Bay Packers – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Really tough to pass on dl here, but the way the draft has fallen you cannot pass on your choice of left tackles (outside Monroe) in the draft if you are the packers. Clifton is a good player, and this isn’t exactly a need, but when you have a guy in Aaron Rodgers who the front office NEEDS to win, you have to bring in personnel that will help him succeed. To get a tackle of Smith’s caliber in the draft at number 8 is a steal, and the pack simply cannot pass on this type of talent at left tackle.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
The niners, IMO, need to start over…again. Another new coach in Singletary, and another new QB in Stafford, one with potential AND youth this time. He’s got a left tackle set in place with Staley, but not much targets other than Davis, who is in the new coach’s dog house. They need to bring in targets for him to throw to, but you don’t pass on a franchise signal caller if you are san fran.

11. Buffalo Bills - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
The Bills aren’t too bad talent-wise, they just can’t seem to figure out how to win. They show plenty of signs however. They’re worst offensive ranking was in the passing game, 22nd. They were also 23rd in points scored. So they bring in IMO far and away the best TE in the draft. He isn’t the best blocker, but I believe he will be up there with the Gates and Witten’s of the league in a few years as far as his receiving skills. A true playmaker and redzone threat, something buffalo could use, especially since Hardy hasn’t seemed to have fit in at WR.

12. Denver Broncos – James Laurinaitis, MLB, Ohio State
Could be William Moore here but they go with JLaur because he’s a better player overall. Not much to explain, denver’s offense is awesome, but the defense can’t stop my old high school team. JLaur teamed with D.J. Williams gives they a scarey 1-2 punch at LB and should help slow down opposing run games… now time to fix the pass defense…

13. Houston Texans – Everette Brown, Tweener, Florida State
This pick gives Houston options on defense, something they need. They are weak at both OLB and at DE opposite Mario Williams. Brown can play either postion IMO, and so they can place him in different positions based on the package or based on how their other guys play. The biggest thing with Brown though is his pass rush ability. He gives them a rush terror opposite Mario Williams. Opposing offensive lines will struggle to contain both, and as the Giants have shown, the way to win in this league is generate a rush.

14. New Orleans Saints – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Bottom line, they give up a lot of yards in the air. Davis is the second best corner and some consider him better than Jenkins. No brainer here IMO wit what’s left on the board. Oher is possible here.

15. Washington Redskins – Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
With Chris Samuels past the midway point of his career and Jon Janson’s injuries, It makes sense to bring in a potentially dominant left tackle this late into round one. Defensive end and tackle can be addressed later. Oher is the best value pick at 15 right now.

16. New York Jets – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
I believe he will emerge as the top WR, yes, better than Crabtree. However, he hasn’t yet. At 6’1 he has nice size, but has dazzling speed. Whoever is the QB next year needs as much help as they can get, especially with Coles possibly gone (and probably to Miami). DE is a need, and Moore at S is enticing, but Maclin has too much talent to pass on for a team that could use a playmaker at WR.

17. Chicago Bears - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
I think this will be the pick. I’d rather see them take Moore or Hardy, but you can’t argue against a WR for da bears. I just think they’re getting another hyped WR who wont produce like a first rounder ever.

[mrdv1]

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If you watched the last play of the bucs season, it was Garcia getting sacked. That being said, LT is a big hole in Tampa. Smith is good value at 18, and patches up one of the few holes the Bucs have. This team should be picking higher, had it not been for a late season collapse, which I accredit to coaching and not personnel.

19. Detroit Lions – Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
An absolute mountain of a man, weighing over 360 and as high as 380. The Lions could go OT here, but with their man Jason Smith off the board one pick prior, and OT Gosder Cherilus being last year’s first rounder, they go for the big guy to help stop the run. Cody eats up two blockers every play, and will help stitch a run defense that bled like a sive (32nd in the league).

20. New England Patriots – Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
Mayo and Thomas are solid, but bruschi appears finished and Vrabel is no youngster. Sintim is versatile and I believe underrated. He gives them options, being a good enough pass rusher to play outside, but also having the size to man the middle.

21. San Diego Chargers – William Moore, S, Missouri
Not much to say here besides the fact that he gives the Chargers an upgrade. It’s a pretty obvious pick, considering they were 31st against the pass and wont go corner with cromartie and jammer there.

22. Arizona Cardinals – Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
Arizona will trade this pick, one spot down to Philadelphia to get an extra second or third rounder. This is because Philly wants Beanie Wells badly, and Arizona is just fine taking Ringer, who I think will have a better career anyway.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Jump up a pick to get the guy they covet. Say what you want about other needs, Philly’s biggest is a big between the tackles back. Yes, Westbrook is one of the best in the league, and will continue to be, but this pick gives them an awesome one two punch and change of pace. Westbrook should put up monster numbers with defenses worrying about Wells, and there will be packages with Brian in the slot and Beanie in the backfield. I’d also like to note that I think Wells stock will fall, which is why he is all the way down at 23.

24. Minnesota Vikings – Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Florida
They have some decent WR’s but no big playmakers. In fact, the only playmaker on offense is Peterson. Harvin adds another dimension on offense. Defenses will always need to know where he is lined up because of his game changing ability, something the Vikes lack on the perimeter. He can also act as a third down running back in certain situations.

25. Miami Dolphins – Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
The teams worst ranking was pass defense (25th) and the corner position could use a major upgrade. Smith’s stock is on the rise.

26. Atlanta Falcons – Brian Cushing, LB, Southern California
Will move him inside to help out a poor run defense. He’s big enough at 6’4 and 245 pounds, and the guy is built like a brick. He a beast, and has good speed as well. I’m from jersey and saw this kid play for Bergon Catholic against Mike Teel’s Don Bosco, and boy did this guy stand out. Should have no problem moving inside for the Falcons.

27. Baltimore Ravens – B. J. Raji, DT, Boston College
The Ravens lack a stud NT for their 3-4 defense, a key component to making it work. Raji brings an instant presence, and like T. Cody, eats up two guys every play.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers – Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma
Alen Faneca’s departure to the Jets really left a hole in the offensive line. Robinson is the best OG in the draft and should start from day 1.

29. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
I think Johnson is overrated. He doesn’t show much when you watch him. Sure he’s quick off the edge but his pass rush repertoire seems limited and being skinny his height seems like it hurt him as tackles seem to get low on him easily. He needs to fill out and be trained right. I think he will succeed in philly however, as he works with one of the best in jimmy Johnson. BPA pick here, but kind of fills a need.

30. Tennessee Titans – Max Unger, OG/C, Oregon
I really like this guy. Played Center at Oregon but will play guard for the titans, at least until Kevin Mawae retires. Top intangibles, and played well vs. USC. I think he will sneak into the first round for his versatility.

31. Indianapolis Colts – Sen’Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
Run Defense is the biggest problem for Indy and DT is a hole. Gotta fill the need at the position.

32. New York Giants – Ciron Black, OT, LSU
Kareem Mckenzie to me is the only weak spot on the Giants offensive line. As a unit, they are the best in the nfl, and you aren’t supposed to mess with a good thing, but depth at tackle never ever hurts. I think he can beat out Mac for the starting right tackle spot however. Also there are no LB’s worth taking here.

[kevmvp]

I like the Jets pick. They need a big time weapon at WR. I dont see Coles going anywhere though unless he gets traded and trades dont happen a lot in the NFL. They cant cut him because there still on the hook for his 7 million.

I dont see the Chiefs passing on a QB.

I agree totally with the Bills pick. Edwards is a check down QB.

I dont see the Giants looking O-Line in the draft. Mckenzie stays IMO. They need to upgrade at the LB posistion.

[cubuffsman78]

I'm still not a fan of Malcolm Jenkins going second overall. I think it's a fairly big reach for him.

Andre Smith might be the top pick overall and I think should be the first OT taken. I'm not a Eugene Monroe-guy. I prefer both Smith and Oher over him.

I could see Curry playing LB in any scheme, but I like him more as an ILB in a 3-4. Regardless, that's not a bad pick. Just a disagreement on scheme.

Terrence Cody has stated he'll be going back to Bama for his senior season. We'll see if that changes.

Can't see Heyward-Bey going over Percy Harvin.

Where do you hear Philly wants Beanie Wells bad? I think that's speculation after the whole Philly couldn't get a yard thing earlier in the year. Philly doesn't want a power back. They've had several opportunities to get some in the past. It's not what Andy Reid does.

Javon Ringer is a 2-3 rounder. Right now, Shonn Greene is the best RB in the draft. You don't have Knowshon Moreno on here either. He'd definitely go over Ringer. I'd take C.J. Spiller over him. OH... and definitely LeSean McCoy, who would be a much better selection for Arizona which needs a change of pace back.

I agree. Michael Johnson is very overrated. I like where you have him.

[bowler533]

Denver takes S or RB before LB.

Vernon Fox, Josh Barrett, Marlon McCree (missed most of season), Marquand Manuel, and Calvin Lowery...how about that for safety talent

Nate Webster/Spencer Larsen aren't special, I agree, but there better players then our safeties.

For the rest, I think Haolti Nata played very well at NT this year. Correct me if he plays DE, but he played well at what I thought was NT.

I agreed with alot of what you said and cubffs, so pretty good.

Also, I'm not really upto-date on Gresham. Is he really a top 15 player?

[cubuffsman78]

Originally Posted by bowler533 For the rest, I think Haolti Nata played very well at NT this year. Correct me if he plays DE, but he played well at what I thought was NT. Also, I'm not really upto-date on Gresham. Is he really a top 15 player?

Ngata played DE.

Greshem is a Top 20 talent. I think he fits fine in the Top 15. He's fast and tall. He's a better receiver and route runner than Vernon Davis was coming out.

[mrdv1]

to note, I don't beleive moreno or mccoy come out.... Ringer and Green will be switched int he next mock

Yes i am specualting for philly, but just look at them. I get so angry watching them because a power back is what they need, it would really put the offense over the top and they SHOULD do it. I mean it is a pick that I want to see happen and I know you shouldn't do that so i'll re-examine, but it would be a nice fit.

With the giants, I watch them every week. I don't think Mackenzie will leave, i just think he sucks. Flat out, worst lineman on the g-men by far. I really think they need an upgrade. His terrible play is covered up because the line is a good unit, and a line that works well together makes up for one bad player. True the Giants need LB help, but at that point there isnt much left for them as far as round one talent. Round 2 definately for LB, and if i beleive Jonathon Vilma only signed a one yr offer in New Orleans? I'd love to see him back in the big apple playing strong side line backer... and MLB in 2010... Pierce is a great player, but he's lost a step.

As far as Jenkins as the number two pick, let's see how he performs at the senior bowl/combine. He runs a 4.4 and plays good at the senior bowl, it's justified. he runs a 4.55 and plays mediocre, he loses the top spot to Davis, we'll see what happens.

[porky88]

I'd ecstatic if the Packers got Andre Smith. Seriously that would be the steal of the century in my opinion. He's just way way way to good to pass up at No. 2 for the Rams. They wanted Jake Long last year and missed out remember.

I like Taylor Mays, but top five is a little overboard. He's not on the level of Sean Taylor. I really don't think he's Ed Reed and Reed fell to like 19 or something like that.

Greshman to Buffalo is a great fit in my opinion.

I also like that you have Sam Bradford No. 1.

Javon Ringer is more Michael Hart than Steve Slaton. He'll fall in my opinion to like day 2. Chris Wells should be the top back in the draft if he comes out.

I think Kansas City's ownership is going to pressure them into taking a QB No. 3 overall. I think that QB will probably be Matthew Stafford because he has John Elway like arm, but if they think like I do then Stafford won't be the pick so we'll see.

[mrdv1]

stafford needs another year of college IMO

[cubuffsman78]

Originally Posted by mrdv1 stafford needs another year of college IMO

I agree. I'm also not a huge fan. I understand if he comes out though. He's likely a top 10 pick at worse. Don't throw away that type of money. Another year can often be bad for a QB. Ask Matt Leinart.