The Swami's Mock Draft

[The Swami]

Time for my one and only mock draft post of the year. Additional explanations available upon request, beside the ones already given

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long,OT Michigan - The absolute best rebuilding block in the entire draft

2. St Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE Virginia - Solid compliment to Little, goes a long way in helping that defense

3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU - Best defensive player in the draft IMO, will help make an immediate impact on Smith's d-line

4. Oakland Raiders – Vernon Gholston, DE The Ohio St - Big, strong, physical, athletic. Has Al Davis written all over him.

5. KC Chiefs – Sedrick Ellis, DT USC - Another big physical player who can give them a presence on the inside

6. New York Jets – Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas - Do I really need a comment here?

7. New England Patriots – Keith Rivers, ILB USC - Seau has to be close to completing his postgraduate degree and Bruschii can't be far behind. Rivers can come in right away and play the nickel

8. Baltimore Ravens – Matt Ryan, QB BC - Highest I would possibly rate him

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Brandon Albert, OL Virginia - Versatile enough to play any position. Can help replace either Steinbauch or Anderson or even Levi.

10. New Orleans Saints – Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy - Can go a long way in helping that secondary

11. Buffalo Bills – Devin Thomas, WR Michigan St - I don't like this pick. I want to give Buffalo a different position, but I have a hard time justifying any pick other than Thomas

12. Denver Broncos – Ryan Clady, OT Boise St - Athletic tackle that starts day 1.

13. Carolina Panthers – Jeff Otah, OT Pitt - Athletic tackle that starts day 1.

14. Chicago Bears – Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois - Benson is not the answer. I feel sorry though for Mendenhall as the state of the Bears offense right now will almost certainly ruin his early career.

15. Detroit Lions – Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon - Replace Benson with Bell, Stewart with Mendenhall, and Bears with Lions in previous statement

16. Arizona Cardinals – DRC, CB Tennessee St - Allows Rolle to move to corner

17. Minnesota Vikings – Derrick Harvey, DE Florida - Pass rush is a big need here

18. Houston Texans – Chris Williams, OT Vandy - I'm not a fan of this pick either, but Williams is too good to pass up

19. Philadelphia Eagles – Jerrod Mayo, ILB Tennessee - Mayo has Eagle written all over him IMO

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Jenkins, CB USF - Rumor is Kiffin loves this guy

21. Washington Redskins – Phillip Merling, DE Clemson - Washington gets the much needed pass rush at a discount

22. Dallas Cowboys – Kentawn Balmer, DE North Carolina - A) you can never have enough d-line in a 3-4. B) Canty is solid, but the other side, not so much

23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kenny Phillips, S Miami - Anthony Smith will not be an NFL starter. I guarantee it.

24. Tennessee Titans – Dan Connor, LB Penn St - I think he can play any of the 3 Lb positions and help fortify an already strong d.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Dustin Keller, TE Purdue - Marcus Pollard?

26. Jacksonville Jaguars – DeSean Jackson, WR Cal - Good compliment to their bigger recievers. Additional value in kick returning, MoJo is becoming too valuable to have him back there.

27. San Diego Chargers – Gosder Cherilus, OT BC - If there was a big NT available, I would have them there. As is, there second biggest need is available

28. Dallas Cowboys – Felix Jones, RB Arkansas - Sorry cubbs, but Jones is a good back who can compliment Barber right away and will eventually carry the load in big D.

29. San Francisco 49ers – Limas Sweed, WR Texas - Big receiver that can learn from Bruce before he really flourishes

30. Green Bay Packers – Aqib Talib, CB Kansas - I hate this pick because I think Talib is a much more talented player but someone always falls and Ill take my chance that it'll be Talib (or some other CB) this year

31. New York Giants – Sam Baker, OT USC - David Diehl is a G.

[cubuffsman78]

I see the Chiefs going one of two ways now, particularly if the trade for Jared Allen is completed. If Gholston or Chris Long are on the board, they're the pick. However, in your draft they're not. That makes either Clady or Albert the pick. DT is a need, but not close to the other two and Albert and Clady are not far off from Ellis on a draft board. Personally, I put Clady ahead of Ellis.

I disagree with your comment about Otah. Of all the OTs to be drafted in the first round, I think he's least likely to start Day 1. He's in the first round because of a high level of potential. He's hardly played football, but five years. Only played his senior year in high school for two games. He's very raw, but his physical attributes and potential because of those attributes make him a first round pick.

I believe Stewart's injury pushes him down to late first round at best.

I disagree with your explanation on the Cardinals too. DRC doesn't move Rolle to CB. They moved him to FS because he couldn't cut it as a CB.

Felix Jones will never carry a full load. That's a guarantee. He's a complimentary back and nothing more. He doesn't have the body type to carry a full load and is far to easy to tackle. Sure, small backs have made it in the NFL. I'm sure someone will throw Warrick Dunn out there. The difference is Dunn could run between the tackles. Jones can't. Watch film on him and you'll learn that quickly.

I don't think Sweed fits Mike Martz's system.

It seems you're saying that NT is the Chargers' biggest need. I think that's far off. It's a need, but not the biggest. RT would be a bigger need as would a nickel back.

[porky88]

I didn't see one pick where I thought No way that would that happen.

The lineman prospects are probably all over teams draft boards so someone is probably going to drop out of the top 15. I just don't think it's Chris Williams.

Dan Conner in round 1 is something I don't think is going to happen. He's a good player with limited upside in my opinion.

I like the Mendenhall to Chicago pick.

Really like that you have Mayo in round 1. I want to put him on Philly as well but the Eagles haven't picked a linebacker in like 20 years or something like that. So I'm a little hesitant.

Once again though I liked it.

[NYJets30]

There isnt much I can say that hasnt been said already.

Echoing what cubuffsman said, I absolutely think Kansas City goes Albert/Clady unless Chris Long falls to them

I completely agree with you on Buffalo. I said in another post that I dont think they should go WR, but it's hard to figure out what else to give them at this point

I dont know about Stewart that high. I think Detroit would rather go another direction with that pick, then take Charles/Johnson/Jones/Rice later on

I like Dan Connor a lot, and I think he's worth a 1st Round pick, so I like that pick

Again echoing cubbs, what makes you feel that NT is the Chargers biggest need? Jamal Williams is one of the most effective the NFL has to offer

[Saint33]

Rod Marinelli is rumored to really like Derrick Harvey, I think that's as low as he falls, unless Mendenhall gets past Chicago

I don't think Mayo will go to the Eagles, the Eagles have 2 young talented LBs in Omar Gaither and Stewart Bradley, plus what porky said about them not drafting a LB in like 20 years. I think Mayo will go to Tennessee.

I don't see the Texans going OT over CB. Especially with Jenkins and Talib still available. I actually expect 4 CBs to go in the top 20.

I think the Bills are more likely to go for a CB at #11 as it's a pretty big need, and guys like DRC and Mike Jenkins are much better values at that point.

And the Giants had a great o-line last year, especially at their tackle spots, I don't see why they would go Baker at that point when there a number of secondary players that would be solid at that pick.

[kc5950]

I have no quarrel with 1-8, I disagree, but I don't think you're way off base.

I absolutely hate the "Brandon Albert in the top 10" movement. I think the earliest he's picked is 14 to Chicago.

I do however, love the Mendenhall to Chicago pick, and have been projecting that for a while.

I think Stewart goes a pick later, but I understand your reasoning.

I don't think Keller to the Seahawks in the first will happen. Not to say I don't like Keller, but I think that there is alot of serviceable receiving TE's in this draft. Also, I don't think the Seahawks value Keller over Davis.

The Jags have swung and missed on several receivers, and traded for Troy Williamson this offseason. I think they'll stand pat until at least the 4th at that position.

Limas Sweed is not going to be a 49'er. If Sweed fell to that spot the 49'ers would either trade out or pick someone else.

[pep9993]

Kentawn Balmer to the Cowboys doesn't make sense. They are loaded at the DT and DE positions. Look for them to take Felix Jones at 22. Jones will not be available at 28. Felix Jones reminds me of Cadillac Williams.

[The Swami]

Cubbs
- Personally, I have Ellis ranked ahead of Clady and Albert and I think that run defense is much more of a deficiency than run defense. Yes, the stats last year agree with you; however, they were without Larry Johnson for most of the year. Their Oline is nowhere near dominant but I believe Waters, Jones, Smith, McIntosh, Alilabi is an average line. Not great, and I definitely think they address the position in the second rd. Someone like Chilo Rachal would be a great fit. Meanwhile, look at KC's run defense over the last 5 years. It has always been atrocious. Ellis is a player that can come in and begin to change that.
Otah is definitely a Day 1 starter in Carolina. Maybe not everywhere in the league, but in Carolina they would have to be stupid to not start him Day 1.
I misspoke about DRC. I meant that pick moves Rolle from CB to FS. My bad.
You act as is Jones is Ray Rice. In comparison, Jones is taller than Johnson, Mendenhall, and Stewart. He weighs only 10 lbs less than Mendenhall and McFadden and weight is easy to put on. Now, he definitely will have to learn to be patient and follow his blockers inside and out but he is definitely big enough to carry the load one day.
NT is the Chargers biggest need. SD doesn't have many needs first off and they only have 1 reliable NT. Jamaal has been playing for 11 seasons at NT and at 350 lbs. That puts some wear and tear on a body. Right now he is dominant, but for how much longer can SD count on that and as you know, the NT is the most important position in a 3-4. On the other hand, Clary is a young developing player with at least a few more seasons ahead of him.

Porky
- I really really like Chris Williams too. I just think given the needs of the teams ahead of Houston, he has to fall out of the top 15 and really 18 isn't that far off.
- I beginning to rethink the Connor pick as well. It wasn't one I was completely sure of, but I still think it would be a solid pick for Tenn. That front 7 would just be nasty and could once again lead their team and I still Connor is a solid prospect but after looking back and seeing guys like Ryans, Pauly P, Harris, Tatupu, and Thurman fall to the 2nd round recently, I think high second may be more realistic for him.
- Overall, thanks for the compliments

Saints
- Last year when Pittsburgh selected Timmons it was the first LB they had selected in 16 years. Point? I don't base my drafts off of super-historic tendencies (tendencies past a current staff). Philadelphia has one of the (if not the) worst LBs in the league. Mayo is one of the best LB in this draft and is the only one that they could draft that could make an immediate impact.
- I tend to agree with about Houston, but Houston does have Dunta to play one-side and can get away with having Faggins and Bennett cover the other side and nickel. At worst someone like Lee, Jackson, Smith, or King could be available later. Besides, we all know that pressure is the key to pass defense. If you're worried about their pass defense, a better arguement would be that they should select Merling; however again they could probably get Jackson or Campbell in the second. Williams is just too good of a prospect for them to pass up
- David Diehl is a guard. He shouldn't be playing tackle. Baker allows him to kick back inside and solidifies that line by allowing them to play Baker, Diehl, O'Hara, Snee and McKenzie. See above about pressure and pass defense. Their secondary was able to stop Moss, Welker, Driver, Jennings, Owens, Crayton, Witten, and Galloway during the post season. I think their secondary will be fine.

KC
- I'm not a fan of the Albert movement either, which is why I don't have him to KC like most.
- Seattle is a weird position. There isn't a glaring hole that any available prospect could fill except for TE. An athletic TE can take that offense to another level. Personally, I think I like Davis better too, but after all of the off season, I think Keller is drafted higher.
- The Jags have drafted Mike Walker, John Broussard (too early to tell about each of them), Matt Jones (bust), Chad Owens (no longer on roster), Reggie Williams (bust), Ernest Wilford (currently residing in Miami) recently. Other recievers on roster Jerry Porter (solid, but getting old), Troy Williamson (Bust), Dennis Northcutt (solid but getting old). Point? It would be hard to convince me that Jacksonville has a bigger need (that they could fill there). However, I moreso think that they would just view Jackson as too valuable to pass up.

Pep
- Do you not read the comments? Dallas is far from loaded with DE. Canty is solid but the other side you have Hatcher and Spears who are rotation players at best. D-Line is incredibly important in a 3-4 and Balmer would complete that line
- The only team you could argue that would take Jones between 22 and 28 would be SD but I just don't see someone as smart as AJ Smith using a 1st rd pick on a backup RB. Turner himself was a 3rd rounder.


Overall guys, thanks for the feedback and the compliments

[cubuffsman78]

My issue with Jones has nothing to do with size. I wish he was Ray Rice. Then he'd actually run with purpose inside the tackles. That's the difference. Felix Jones reminds me of Julius Jones. The Cadillac statement made by peps is way off. He's not a strong interior runner and doesn't break tackles. Seriously, watch film on him. He's incredibly easy to tackle, much like Julius Jones. Felix will not carry a load ever in his career. I hate to use something definite like that, but I can't see him ever being that player when I watch him play. Don't focus on the size. Look at the film. Size in this matter is deceiving. Based on size Warrick Dunn should never be a good interior rusher, but he was. Jones doesn't compare.

On NT to SD... I agree they should address the position, but I wouldn't call it the biggest need. I think more emphasis should be placed on getting a RT and nickel back for sure. Also, I think that FB is very important to that offense. I could see ILB being just as big of a need as NT as well. It's obviously debatable because there isn't a big glaring need in SD.

[pep9993]

Spears was a beast against the run and so was Canty. Hatcher and Bowen are their replacements. Both of them had productive years. Ratliff and Tank Johnson will hold down the middle. They are fine along DL. DL in the 4th round is a safe pick. Look for Dallas to grab a QB in the second or third round. Dennis Dixon in the third or Booty or Woodson in the second.