kc5950's 1st mock.

[kc5950]

1. Miami Dolphins- Chris Long, DE, Virginia
I like the Dolphins to trade down and try to a position to take Sedrick Ellis, but if they keep this pick Chris Long is the best fit for the 3-4 scheme, and at this value.

2. St. Louis Rams- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Orlando Pace is getting old, and has been one of the most important players to the Rams offense. The rams have needs on defense, but after moving Adam Carriker to DT, will probably look to fill those needs in later rounds.

3. Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
The Falcons clearly have issues at QB. They do not have a coach in place, but Matt Ryan is probably the best prospect at QB, and the most neutral in terms of system compatibility.

4. Oakland Raiders- Darren Mcfadden, RB, Arkansas
I’m not a huge Mcfadden fan, but he’s arguably the best prospect in the draft. To continue playing a broken record, Al Davis loves flashy skill position players. Justin Fargas doesn’t figure to be a long term option at RB, and Jake Long is off the board. Glenn Dorsey is a possibility here, in the wake of Warren Sapp’s retirement.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
The Chiefs find themselves in an excellent situation. Dorsey is the best available, fills a moderate need, and allows them not to reach for offensive line help in Sam Baker or Ryan Clady.

6. New York Jets- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Ellis probably projects as a DE in the Jets 3-4. Like I said, I think the Dolphins will try to trade down here, which will change the order up considerably, but I imagine that Ellis will be taken 6th or better either way.

7. New England Patriots- Dan Connor, OLB, Penn State
The Patriots have very few real needs. Sure, they could take a corner, but considering that CB is very deep for the 2nd year in a row, look for the Pats to sit on their secondary in the first round. Asante Samuel was drafted in the 4th round of a similarly deep 2003 draft. The only real weakness of the current Patriots is their aging linebacking corps. Connor is a reach, but is the best LB prospect in the draft, and could take over for Mike Vrabel as soon as next year.

8. Baltimore Ravens- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Jonathan Ogden is mulling retirement, and the Ravens find a young tackle to pair with Ben Grubbs, the Raven’s 2007 1st round pick. The Ravens could be a candidate to take Brian Brohm, but considering the potential free agent/ trade market that includes Derek Anderson and Donovan Mcnabb above others, look for the Ravens to pass on Brohm in the 1st.

9. Cincinatti Bengals- Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
The Bungles need a lot of help on defense. Gholston is a local product, who has a winning history coming from Ohio State. Gholston is athletic enough that the Bengals could move him back to play linebacker if the need presented itself, but should attempt to fill that need in the 2nd round.

10. New Orleans Saints- Mike Jenkins, CB, USF
The Saints had a rough season in ’07. The problem that plagued them, while their offense came back down to earth, was that their defense didn’t improve much to compensate. Corners are hard to project before the combine, but as of now Jenkins measurables look the best.

11. Buffalo Bills- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
The Bills had needed linebacking help since spending a half decade with the statistically dominant London Fletcher-Baker. The Bills need help stopping the run, and Rivers is the best LB available.

12. Denver Broncos- Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
John Lynch is getting old, and the Bronco’s top choice on the offensive line, Ryan Clady is off the board. Phillips could step in as soon as this season.

13. Carolina Panthers- Sam Baker, OT, USC
The Panthers continue to ease the transition from Deshaun Foster to Deangelo Williams, who is much more of a finess-vision type of back, and won’t run anyone over. Foster struggled last year, averaging less than 4 ypc. The Panthers could take a look at Malcolm Kelly at WR. However, this draft is deep at WR, and Carolina can probably find a receiver in the 2nd or 3rd round.

14. Chicago Bears- Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Barring a trade for Mcnabb or Anderson, the Bears will need to secure their future at QB. I personally don’t think that Brohm is going to be a great NFL QB, but he’s considered a 1st round prospect by most analysts.

15. Detroit Lions- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
There is not any offensive line help really worthy of a pick right here, and the Lions still have a lot of money tied up in Jeff Backus. Mendenhall is shooting up the charts, and after a solid combine could be the 2nd RB on the board. Mendenhall is a very solid replacement for Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell, no matter who the Lions hire as OC.

16. Arizona Cardinals- Leodis Mckelvin, CB, Troy
If Mckelvin were two inches taller and played in a BCS conference, he’d be the best CB prospect in this draft. Arizona needs defensive help.

17. Minnesota Vikings- Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
There is a saying, “If you throw enough crap at the wall, some is bound to stick.” The Vikings have struggled to replace Randy Moss, and have drafted Kelly is paired with his former Sooner teammate, and rookie of the year Adrian Peterson.

18. Houston Texans- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State
The Texans had their eyes on Ryan Clady, and could trade up to get him. With Mendenhall of the board there is no runningback that fits the Texans scheme, and has value at 18. Malcolm Kelly, who would have taken pressure off of Andre Johnson is also off the board. Rodgers-Cromartie has good size, and should help the porous Texans secondary.

19. Philadelphia Eagles- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
The Eagles need a wide receiver, and offensive line help. The best receiver on the board is Desean Jackson, but Jackson isn’t really physical enough for Andy Reid’s offense. Limas Sweed and James Hardy are physical enough, but a little plodding in their cuts. The WR position is very deep in this draft, and there are better combinations of size and speed available in the 2nd round.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Desean Jackson, WR, California
Jackson falls from one WCO to another. Jackson goes to a team that needs a QB – next year. Jeff Garcia played well enough for the Bucs to make the playoffs, and the 2nd round will have a lot of options. Andre Woodson is a terrible WCO QB prospect. He’s not particularly accurate, and has a slow release.

21. Washington Redskins- Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
After the unfortunate death of Sean Taylor, the Redskins could look to replace him at safety. The best player available is Groves should have a good combine, and Dan Snyder loves combine freaks.

22. Dallas Cowboys- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
The Cowboys seem intent on drafting Darren Mcfadden. If they can’t trade up, Felix Jones would be a great pick, and excellent compliment to Marion Barber, and could be the best back RB out of this draft.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
A local product at a need position. Max Starks is a free agent, as is Alan Faneca. Jonathan Stewart is a possibility here, but I doubt the Steelers feel that a platoon back is worthy of a 1st round pick.

24. Tennessee Titans- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Say what you’d like to about Sweed’s 40 time, but the Titans missed out on Dwayne Bowe last year. I had them taking Robert Meachem, who may turn into a solid player, but spent most of 2007 inactive. Sweed and Vince Young played together at Texas, and would be the third Longhorn taken by the Titans in as many years.

25. Seattle Seahawks- Carl Nicks, OL, Nebraska
A lot of people have either Fred Davis, or a runningback going to Seattle. The Seahawks have struggled to run the ball since losing Steve Hutchinson, and will probably make a run at Alan Faneca this offseason. Nicks can play tackle, but could also step in at left or right guard, both positions that Seattle should look to improve. Another need that the ‘Hawks have is WR, as Deion Branch recovers from a torn ACL, Bobby Engram continues to age, D.J. Hackett is a free agent, and Nate Burleson continues to make big plays while dropping easy passes. Nicks is familiar with the WCO, having played under Bill Callahan.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars- Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
The Jaguars did a fine job stopping the run last season, but lacked a pass rush. Another thing that Campbell does is pushes the Jags farther over the 1,200 lb. mark on their D-Line.

27. San Diego Chargers- Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
San Diego needs help at MLB, and has for a while. He’s definitely a reach in the 1st round, but the Chargers don’t have another pick until the 4th round. DT is a need, but only as a backup to Jamal Williams.

28. Dallas Cowboys- Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Dallas has traditionally had a good line, that’s why they’ve been able to survive with statues like Drew Bledsoe and Troy Aikman, and the struggles of the OL were why Tony Romo was a better fit in ’06. The line is aging, and Jerry already got his RB.

29. San Francisco 49ers- Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Mike Martz is in San Francisco now, which is why I am baffled when I see James Hardy drafted by San Francisco in so many mocks. Manningham runs good routes, has decent size, and good speed. He’s like a poor man’s Torry Holt.

30. Green Bay Packers- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Is Ryan Grant the answer? Or is he Chris Brown in Willie Parker’s clothing? I don’t know, but the Packers needs and wants are all deep in this draft, and Stewart has good value at the bottom of the 1st.

31. New York Giants- Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
Smith can play corner and safety, which means he can come forward and play the slot receiver. The Giants need help at linebacker, but I don’t know that there is a linebacker available here worth taking. Maybe Jarrod Mayo.

32. New England- Pick Forfeited

[kc5950]

I had to cut characters, so here is the 2nd round.

Round 2

32. Miami Dolphins- Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
The Dolphins get piece #2 for rebuilding their defensive line.

33. St. Louis Rams- Derrick Harvey, DE/OLB, Florida
St. Louis drafts the BPA who fits their scheme, whether it be a 4-3 or 3-4.

34. Oakland Raiders- Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Oakland shores up their O-line

35. Kansas City Chiefs- Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
Good Value, can play the slot while learning from Law and Surtain.

36. New York Jets- Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
The Jets continue to add to their young LB corps.

37. Atlanta Falcons- Philip Merling, DE, Clemson
The Falcons add Patrick Kerney’s replacement.

38. Baltimore Ravens- Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Ravens steal Woodson, who can sit for a few years and learn from Cam Cameron.

39. San Francisco 49ers- Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
49ers shore up the DL after drafting offense in 1st.

40. New Orleans Saints- Jarod Mayo, MLB, Tennessee
Saints have a terrible run defense, and attempt to cure that.

41. Buffalo Bills- Fred Davis, TE, USC
Gives Losman/Edwards a redzone target.

42. Denver Broncos- Heath Benedict, OT, Newberry
Bronco’s take a risk on an athletic tackle from a D-II school.

43. Carolina Panthers- Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Carolina takes their QB of the future.

44. Chicago Bears- Tom Zbibkowski, S, Notre Dame
The Bears like guys like this, and need a safety.

45. Detroit Lions- Philip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Inside/Outside possibility, but helps the run.

46. Cincinnati Bengals- Erin Henderson, OLB, Maryland
Good bloodlines, no rap sheet.

47. Minnesota Vikings- Jonathan Hefney, S, Tennessee
Secondary help, took a WR in the 1st.

48. Atlanta Falcons- Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Gives Matt Ryan someone to throw too besides Roddy White

49. Philadelphia Eagles- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Measurables compare favorably to TO.

50. Arizona Cardinals- Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
Sure, Willie Parker fell into Ken Whisenhunt’s lap, but you can’t argue with results. This guy, Johnson, is also – fast.

51. Washington Redskins- Chilo Rachal, OG, USC
The Skins need help on the line.

52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
A project who can learn from Jeff Garcia.

53. Pittsburgh Steelers- James Hardy, WR, Indiana
IS 6’7” TALL ENOUGH BEN? Actually Hardy compliments Ward and Holmes well.

54. Tennessee Titans- Jerimichael Finley, TE, Texas
… another Longhorn that makes sense. I don’t like this.

55. Seattle Seahawks- Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
I won’t like this pick, but it makes sense.

56. Cleveland Browns- Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
Good Value at a need position

57. Miami Dolphins- Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
Dolphins continue to rebuild defense.

58. Jacksonville Jaguars- Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State
Good player, need position.

59. Dallas Cowboys- Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Good value, need position.

60. Green Bay Packers- Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Versatile CB, who can do a lot of things.

61. Indianapolis Colts- Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Helps replace Cato June.

62. New York Giants- Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
Fast DT, helps the pass rush and run defense.

63. New England Patriots- Dejuan Tribble, CB, Boston College
Can tackle, replaces Asante Samuel or adds depth to secondary.

[Saint33]

No Lawrence Jackson first day?? Lawrence had a solid Senoir Bowl week, which i thought was enough to bump him up into the first. I have him passing Quentin Groves, and about the same as Calais Campbell right now in my DE rankings. Which leads to my next point...

Quentin Groves and Calais Campbell over Derrick Harvey??

Aqib Talib at 56!? Doucet at 48? Balmer at 39? Woodson at 38?

This is just insanity

Plus Chris Johnson, Jerimichael Finley and Jonathan Hefney shouldn't be in the 2nd round?

[cubuffsman78]

I think if Gholston is available then Baltimore will ponder picking him. Actually, I think the Pats would consider him over Dan Connor.

What is your issue with the top RBs in drafts? You didn't like Adrian Peterson last year and this year you don't like McFadden.

I'm not a Malcolm Kelly fan. I've gone into why several times. I just think he'd be a bad pick for Minnesota especially with DeSean Jackson still on the board.

I don't put Cromartie in late round 1 let alone the middle of it. I'm just not on that bandwagon yet.

Groves is a possibility to move up because of his combine. He'll probably run a Manny Lawson type time in the 40. That said... I can't see Washington thinking he projects well with his hand on the ground. I see him as a 3-4 OLB and valued highly by only those teams.

I like the Carl Nicks pick. I've been moving him up my boards and was going to definitely have him going before Gosder in my next mock. He's got better size, athleticism and technique.

Speaking of Gosder, I really don't like him in the first round and hate him going to the Cowboys. I wouldn't be happy with that pick at all. I think the Cowboys needing young linemen is a misconception being taken by several different draftniks. Every starter is at least 30 years old next season, but James Marten and Doug Free were both drafted to inherit the RT and LT jobs eventually. The Cowboys love Free's pass blocking skills and are waiting for him to develop as a run blocker. The only reason Dallas would draft an OL is if Free isn't ready to take over for Flozell, who is a UFA, but also coming off his best season in about 5 years.

I don't like Curtis Lofton in the first round or in a 3-4 defense.

I think Ryan Grant is the answer...

I don't see Harvey slipping out of the first round. He's every bit as good as Gholston with his hand on the ground. Gholston rates higher cause he can play standing up as well. I think Harvey will struggle as a LB.

Ali Highsmith is a terrible fit for a 3-4 defense. He weighs around 220 lbs. and fits a cover 2 defense much better.

Balmer will be a first round pick. The hype surrounding him right now is huge.

Broncos could take a chance on Benedict in the 4th round rather than the second.

Doucet is a first round pick now. I'm convinced of that.

Jermichael Finley isn't a first day pick. He's raw. Should've stayed in school. He's a big body and is very athletic, but he's never shown himself to be a good red zone threat.

Talib has the best combination of athleticism and skill at the CB position. He's a top 20 pick.

Tribble will be manhandled by NFL WRs. He's a second day pick now.

I agree with Saint. I know you don't want your mock to look like everyone else's and no one's looks the same this time of year, but some of this stuff is far out of place right now.

[kc5950]

[I found this message, still unposted, when I got home from work sunday morning]

It was supposed to be right after Saint posted, but it works now.

I don't think Doucet is a great prospect. He's small, and not the fastest.

Most of this was done previous to reading a senior bowl report.

Trevor Laws and Lawrence Jackson fit in there.

Chris Johnson will be a 2nd round pick.

I gotta get ready for work, but here is the deal.

I'm not going to spend alot of time this year arguing (shocker) over where I have players ranked compared to other players at their position. I'll explain why I think certain teams will take certain players higher, on demand. Much of this is because I'm alot busier this year than last year, but also, last year we all kind of fell to the status quo of the forum. Generally speaking, we had players ranked the same within their position, just ordered differently in our mocks. Case and point, Michael Griffin fell out of the first on most mocks last year, Ted Ginn fell to the late 1st. Marshawn Lynch to 20+. I'm as guilty as anyone, Cubuffsman influences alot of people's opinions in here, because #1, hes probably the most knowledgeable in terms of schemes and defensive packages, and #2 hes probably the most informed on college football. I'm not going to argue because I want to remain objective. Last year I actually had Ginn to the Dolphins, but I was convinced otherwise by the opinions I'd heard of him in here.

[kc5950]

Cubuffsman

My truthful issue with the top backs of the last two drafts is that they have both been tall backs. Tall backs tend to fall of the face of the earth following an injury in their mid 20's, and tend to be more injury prone. I loved Reggie Bush, but I also loved Ricky Williams. I'm not saying its a fool proof strategy, but shorter backs generally have longer careers, their strides become less loping, and their cuts remain more crisp, generally. I don't care what guys do in their rookie season, a few of my favorite players from the Bush draft remain Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai. I was on the Garrett Wolfe bandwagon last year, this year my guys are Mendenhall and Slaton.

You have the same thing with corners, you didn't like Revis last year, and I didn't like AP. I didn't have AP as the 2nd back in my draft, as I had originally stated he would go as a "bold prediction." You stood strong on Revis being drafted in the late 1st, early 2nd, he went #14. He was the first corner taken.

It is January, I'm projecting my own combine, and as I stated, I hadn't read a senior bowl report.

Bottom line is, I respect all of your opinions, and I don't want you guys to think that I'm trying to piss in your cheerios, but this year, I'm going to handle it differently.

[pitcherc10]

CB is not a need position for the Browns. We need front 7 help. When the QB has 5-7 seconds to throw the ball the corners are going to get beat deep, and that was the Browns problem.

[cubuffsman78]

My issue with Revis had to do with film I saw of him and a total lack of production his senior year. I already admitted I was wrong with him midway through the season, naming him the runner-up for defensive rookie of the year at that point. But yeah, I stood by that selection throughout the draft. I was passionate about my opinion of him, which turned out to be wrong.

This year, you'll see me doing the same thing with Malcolm Kelly.

[porky88]

I won't go off on it like others will since it's early but to answer the Ryan Grant question. Yeah he's the real deal. He ran for over 900 yards in only 8 starts. That's impressive and the Seattle playoff peformance will go down in Packers History as one of the best.

If your worried about him because of the NFC Title game against the Giants. That goes towards McCarthy. He blew that one. He refused to run the ball because 2 yard gains in his mind weren't good enough. Grant I heard on the radio only had 4 carries in the 2nd half which is just an awful stat to have. So I think you have to cut him some slack on that one.

Though I do really like Stewart and you can't have him fall to round 2 so wouldn't shock me to see someone move up to get him and GB does trade down a lot.

I don't think Curtis Lofton and Carl Nicks sniff the 1st round.

Someone seemed upset you had Woodson that low. I'm with you on that. I used to like Woodson but his Senior Bowl was not good and his stock is dropping quite a bit.

[kc5950]

Ryan Grant turns 26 next year, and most teams are employing a platoon of backs. I'm not worried about anything specifically on Grant, but generally there are reasons why guys are cut or traded for peanuts. I'm not saying he's bad, but sometimes guys come back down to earth. Also, he's a free agent.

I'm not a big Stewart fan, I think he's got Lendale White written all over him.

Nicks I feel pretty strongly about, as far becoming a Seahawk that is. The Seahawks are unafraid to reach for players. Tim Ruskell reached for Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, Josh Wilson, Brandon Mebane, and all have turned out well to this point.

I think that the Chargers will take the best remaining ILB prospect available, whether it be Curtis Lofton, Jarod Mayo, Philip Wheeler, or one of Rivers and Connor if they fall, I think the Chargers fill a long time void.

Woodson is the most raw of any of the top 4-6 QB's, depending on how you have them ranked. I like him alot, but there are only a handful of offensive left in the league that in my opinion cater to his skills. Cam Cameron runs one of those offenses, and I would really be interested to see him, a Rivers type body with a little speed. I doubt he'll be first rounder, the only team that really needs a QB in the latter half of the first is Tampa Bay, and I would tend to think that had they intended to draft a QB they'd have done it last year (though they had 6 on their roster at one point I believe). I wouldn't be surprised to see TB take a flyer on him in the 2nd if he falls that far, but to be a WCO QB he's going to need some serious mechanical correction. Another couple of interesting names, potential risers, are Josh Johnson and Joe Flacco. Both have rightfully had their competition questioned, and both would need upwards of three years to develope, but they both appear to have the physical tools if nothing else to play QB in the NFL.

The two guys I'm interested in for my own team (who will be