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| Published: Oct 16, 2009 4:17 PM EST |
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Incredi-Hull picks: College Football Week 7 |
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From a record standpoint, I had my best week in a month with my picks.
Still, Saturday lacked for drama for me as my parlay bid was over early.
Just when I decide to jump on the Auburn bandwagon and believe Gene Chizik has that team headed in the right direction, the Tigers lay an egg against Arkansas and lose by 21 points. The line had Auburn favored by 2.5.
Say goodbye to my bid at $1,000. It was even more frustrating as I saw the majority of other teams I picked cover the point spread. I went 5-2 on the week with my only other loss coming in the Louisville-Southern Miss game. So. Miss was favored by 1, but lost 25-23.
Last week's semi-success pushed me to a 17-20 overall record against the line this week.
Coming the closest I have all season to actually achieving parlay success has sucked me right back into believing I can sweep this week.
I've picked seven more games. I laid $10 on the line with hopes of a $1,071 payday.
Here's the breakdown of this week's selected action:
Oklahoma (3-2) vs. Texas (5-0)
Line: Texas by 3.
Television: Noon ET on ABC
Analysis: There aren't many rivalries capable of even comparing to the Red River Rivalry. The state of Texas is a football mecca and many of Oklahoma's best players also hail from the state. For many Texans, the OU athletes from their state are considered traitors. The game also gains added ambiance by being played in the legendary Cotton Bowl. I've had the pleasure of seeing games from this structure, and while it is outdated, it's an amazing walk up to the gates and just knowing the epic battles that have taken place on that field leaves a Texas-raised boy with chills. Onto the game. This is not going to be the offensive shootout delivered a year ago when both teams combined to score 80 points in a 45-35 Longhorns win. Get ready for a defensive football game. Sam Bradford is back for Oklahoma, but he doesn't have a great timing chemistry with his wide receivers. Also, OU's OL has been suspect so far this season and it's not 100 percent healthy, either. The Horns have also struggled more on offense at times. Colt McCoy doesn't look like the Heisman candidate many, including this writer, have hyped him to be. An already bulimic run game is going to be further damaged by the loss of top RBs Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton. I expect the game to be close for a majority of regulation, but look out for a big special teams play by Jordan Shipley to make the difference. Shipley deserves some Heisman consideration. That is if the voters can get out of the habit of making that trophy a QB award.
Prediction: Texas 24, Oklahoma 14
Texas Tech (4-2) at Nebraska (4-1)
Line: Nebraska by 11.
Television: 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Analysis: Texas Tech has a QB controversy. Red Raiders fans are screaming for Steven Sheffield to hold onto the position after he posted 11 TDs and 780 yards in two starts. However, coach Mike Leach has dubbed Taylor Potts as his guy and ego is something difficult to get over. Fact is Sheffield gives Tech the better chance of winning because he's not a statue in the pocket and he brings a different type of energy and swagger to the team. Nebraska's black shirts are back. The Huskers are playing defense as well as anyone. Their pass efficiency defense in No. 3 in the country. Something has got to give in this game. I'll give Nebraska the edge, but not by double digits.
Prediction: Nebraska 38, Texas Tech 34
USC (4-1) at Notre Dame (4-1)
Line: USC by 10.
Television: 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Analysis: I have picked every game Notre Dame has played this season and am 1-4 in those contests. You'd think I'd learn my lesson, but alas, I have not. There is a lot riding on this game for the Irish. This is the equivalent of their Super Bowl. This game means everything to Charlie Weis and this team. USC is overrated this season as is the entire Pac-10. The Trojans remain a media darling, though, and I am now convinced ESPN's Mark May is receiving funds from the athletic department to hype the program the way he does on a weekly basis. Jimmy Clausen is a legit Heisman candidate for Notre Dame. USC is still searching for its identity on offense and defense. On offense, that ID needs to focus around dynamic RB Joe McKnight, but it's hard to believe the Trojans will start relying on him now. USC should be able to pull out a victory, but the Irish will keep it close.
Prediction: USC 35, Notre Dame 32
Colorado State (3-3) at TCU (5-0)
Line: TCU by 22.
Television: None. 4 p.m. ET start.
Analysis: TCU came very close to being the last true BCS Buster Wednesday, when Boise State was given a scare by Tulsa. Instead, the Horned Frogs are simply the No. 2 team as far as BCS Busters go and they try to keep those hopes pumping against Colorado State, who I don't think is getting enough love from the line makers. After starting off 3-0, the Rams have lost their last three games to BYU, Idaho and Utah, respectively. BYU was the only team to defeat the Rams by a significant margin, but even the Cougars didn't top CSU by 20. It was 19. The reason Colorado State struggled so mightily against BYU was because of the Cougars' ability to throw the ball. The Rams are solid against the run, which TCU will rely upon more. This will be a win for the Frogs, but it will be closer than 22 points.
Prediction: TCU 31, Colorado State 14
Virginia Tech (5-1) at Georgia Tech (5-1)
Line: Va. Tech by 3.
Television: 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Analysis: Believe it or not, I struggled more with this game than any other on the list. This is the type of game Va. Tech has dropped in recent years and Ga. Tech's triple-option offense is capable fo giving any defense fits. The Yellow Jackets are No. 4 in the nation running the football, averaging 277 yards a game. Va. Tech's run defense is about middle of the road, but the Hokies best defensive player Kam Chancellor is a safety capable of supporting against the run and should have free reign at the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, Ga. Tech's defense is not what it traditionally is with sackmaster DE Derrick Morgan being the only playmaker. Plus, Va. Tech QB Tyrod Taylor has really come into his own since the come-from-behind victory over Nebraska a month ago and redshirt freshman Ryan Williams is rushing for more than 120 yards a game. Va. Tech is one of the top five teams in the nation and the best one-loss team right now. And don't forget Beamer Ball. Special teams almost always goes the Hokies' way.
Prediction: Va. Tech 34, Ga. Tech 27
Baylor (3-2) at Iowa State (3-3)
Line: Iowa State by 1.5.
Television: None. 7 p.m. ET start.
Analysis: This was supposed to be the year Baylor broke into the bowl season after a 15-year hiatus from playing a meaningful game in December or January. Unfortunately, the horse they had planned on riding to that bowl game is now out for the season. Dynamic sophomore QB Robert Griffin is shelved due to a knee injury and Baylor alum everywhere immediately began cancelling hotel reservations in Houston, Fort Worth, San Antonio, Birmingham, Ala., or where ever else the Bears might have had a chance to play in the bowl season. However, I'm here to tell the Bears faithful to have hope. There are enough playmakers on this team and you now have a veteran QB stepping back into the fold. Blake Szymanski, who holds the all-time Baylor record for passing yards and TDs in a single season, is slated to start against Iowa State. I watched Szymanski play high school ball in Texas at Wichita Falls Rider. He was a dynamic QB, whose favorite target was David Nelson, who is now a top receiver for the Florida Gators. Szymanski has more than enough ability to lead the Bears past Iowa State and get Baylor within two wins of being bowl eligible for the first time since 1994.
Prediction: Baylor 31, Iowa State 23
Texas A&M (3-2) at Kansas State (3-3)
Line: Texas A&M by 5.5.
Television: None. 7 p.m. ET start.
Analysis: This Texas boy went with most Texas colleges in this week's parlay. I guess I'm thinking I need to stick with the teams I know best. K-State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Texas Tech, but get the reward of facing another high-octane offense. A&M is putting up fantastic numbers in coach Mike Sherman's second year. The Aggies average more than 500 yards of total offense a game. K-State doesn't have the ability to keep up with A&M and for all intensive purposes should probably be winless against FBS programs this year after they stole one from Iowa State. This was the easiest game of the week to select. The Aggies will win big.
Prediction: A&M 49, K-State 27 |
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| Published: Oct 16, 2009 4:17 PM EST |
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