|
|
| Published: Oct 10, 2009 2:14 AM EST |
|
Incredi-Hull picks: College Football Week 6 |
|
|
I experienced some of the classic emotions that go along with gambling last weekend and the roller coaster ride it took me on occurred in simply one game. By the end of the venture, my parlay was once again ruined.
Last week, I took Michigan as a 3.5-point road dog to Michigan State. For a majority of the game, it appeared I was doomed as Michigan State led throughout and had 14 points on the Wolverines late. Then, the magic of Michigan QB Tate Forcier gave me hope.
Forcier rallied the Wolverines, scoring two TDs in the final five minutes and sending the game into overtime. At this point, I'm thinking I've got a great chance of winning this particular bet and keeping my parlay alive. The only thing that can ruin it for me is Michigan State scoring a TD.
Well, Forcier lost his magic in the extra frame, throwing an INT on the opening possession. That meant Michigan State needed just a field goal to win the game. Fantastic! After all, as long as Michigan is within 3 points then I win.
The Spartans got backed up with a 9-yard loss on its first play, but managed to set up a third-and-8 at the 23. Michigan State was simply running the ball in hopes of moving closer for a field goal. What happened instead caused death to my parlay and caused me to nearly utter some unprintable words.
Larry Caper took the handoff, broke what seemed to be a sure tackle shy of the first down and sprinted to the end zone for a 23-yard TD. It was an early end to my parlay hopes.
Not that I ended up getting close to winning anyway. I went 3-4 last week, bringing my record for the year to 12-18 against the line. Fear not, though. I will press on and continue to lay down my $10 a week in hopes of hitting the jackpot.
I've picked another seven games this week and a majority of the games selected come out of the SEC. Oh and I finally didn't pick a Notre Dame game, either. That's mostly becaue the Irish are off this week.
If I can get all seven games right then I'm looking at a nice $1,071 payday. That'd be a nice turnaround on my $10.
Here's the breakdown of this week's selected action:
Auburn (5-0) at Arkansas (2-2)
Line: Auburn by 2.5.
Television: Noon ET on ESPN.
Analysis: Auburn is the surprise team of the SEC right now, winning its first five games and moving into the Top 25 polls at No. 17. New coach Gene Chizik is known as a defensive guru, but it's the Auburn offense making the biggest difference right now. The Tigers have a balanced offense ranked No. 5 in the country in total yards. Arkansas doesn't feature as much balance, but Bobby Petrino has built a fantastic passing attack around QB Ryan Mallett. Neither team plays great defense, but the Tigers are in the Top 25 nationally in pass defense. Arkansas doesn't defend anything well. Auburn should be able to go 6-0 and win by at least a field goal.
Prediction: Auburn 33, Arkansas 30
Georgia (3-2) at Tennessee (2-3)
Line: Tennessee by 1.
Television: 12:21 p.m. ET on ESPN 360.
Analysis: When a defense can hold a Tim Tebow-led offense to 23 points, then it's a good omen. Tennessee isn't going to score many points, but they don't have to either. The Vols can play old school football, controlling the clock with the ground game while relying on a dominant defense. That's what Lane Kiffin has with his offense combined with his father Monte's defense. The Vols simply need to get turnovers under control and they'll starting winning some games. The same can be said of Georgia, which should have picked up a win over LSU last week were it not for a bad unsportsmanlike conduct penalty following a go-ahead score over the Tigers in the fourth quarter. The Bulldogs aren't doing anything particularly well this season. The offense scored 41 and 52 points in back-to-back weeks earlier this season, but has put forth paltry efforts in the last two weeks. And speaking of turnovers, Georgia ranks 115th nationally in turnover margin.
Prediction: Tennessee 17, Georgia 10
Houston (3-1) at Mississippi State (2-3)
Line: Mississippi State by 2.5.
Television: 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Analysis: Houston's 58-41 loss to UTEP was bad, but the stage was set for a letdown by the Cougars. Houston still puts up massive numbers on offense. In fact, the Cougars are ranked No. 1 in total offense. They just give up a ton as well. Houston was able to play a bend, don't break defense against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Cougars couldn't keep UTEP out of the end zone to save their lives last week. Case Keenum is going to still pass for more than 400 yards against Mississippi State. The one problem Houston will have with a feisty Bulldogs squad is stopping the run. Mississippi State RB Anthony Dixon is going to have a field day against the Cougars. Don't be shocked if he goes for more than 200 yards. Still, a shootout generally goes to the team with the better gunslinger.
Prediction: Houston 41, Mississippi State 29
Alabama (5-0) at Mississippi (3-1)
Line: Alabama by 4.5.
Television: 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Analysis: Ole Miss got overrated by several prognosticators and experts, including this writer, who doesn't claim to be much of a prognosticator and is far from an expert. I'm more of a pundit with an emphasis on PUN. I overrated Ole Miss and underrated Bama. There isn't a defense that plays more physical than the Crimson Tide. That nature will be far too much for the QB Jevan Snead and the Rebels to cope with.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Mississippi 20
Southern Miss (3-2) at Louisville (1-3)
Line: Southern Miss by 1.
Television: 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Analysis: Southern Miss has one of the best RBs no one has heard of in Damion Fletcher. Fletcher ranks 28th among backs in rushing yards per game. He's the focal point of a two-headed monster in the backfield for So. Miss along with Tory Harrison. The Golden Eagles are just as capable throwing the ball with QB Austin Davis. Louisville is a team still looking for its identity of both sides of the ball.
Prediction: So. Miss 32, Louisville 23
Florida (4-0) at LSU (5-0)
Line: Florida by 7.
Television: 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
Analysis: Tim Tebow will be in this game. Urban Meyer can play the cat-and-mouse game with his star QB's status because there isn't a policy about reporting injuries in college football. But everyone knows that Tebow getting back on the practice field means he's going to be in the game. Meyer knows it. LSU knows it. Obama knows it. Even Pope Benedict XVI knows it. LSU has been fortunate to espace with wins the past two weeks. I don't think the Tigers stand a chance of keeping pace with Florida.
Prediction: Florida 30, LSU 10
Arizona (3-1) at Washington (2-3)
Line: Arizona by 3.5.
Television: None. 10 p.m. ET.
Analysis: Call this one a hunch. On paper, Arizona holds many advantages over Washington. The Wildcats can run on just about anyone, averaging more than 200 yards a game. The Huskies give 178 yards a game on the ground. In fact, Washington's defense is one of the nation's worse. So why pick the Huskies? One reason. Jake Locker. He's not going to let the Huskies lose much more. The guy is just a winner. He's got an x-factor similar to what Tebow does.
Prediction: Washington 31, Arizona 29 |
|
| Published: Oct 10, 2009 2:14 AM EST |
|
|
| |
RECENT
ARTICLES BY JONATHAN HULL |
|
|
|
| |
RECENT
FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
WEEK 11 FANTASY
FOOTBALL INFORMATION |
|
|
|
|
| |
WEEK 10 FANTASY
FOOTBALL INFORMATION |
|
| |
|
| |
RECENT FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
