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| Published: Oct 2, 2009 6:14 PM EST |
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Incredi-Hull picks: College Football Week 5 |
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Oh, it's been bad.
I have been so far off on my college picks against the line lately. Luckily, it's only $10 a week I'm wagering or else I'd be in some kind of hole.
In the last two weeks, I've gone a combined 2-9 on my parlay picks. In no way am I professional gamble. And if I were, I'd be fired from this job long ago.
I'm just a guy who enjoys placing a low-risk, high-reward wager on his favorite sport. There's a lot of you like me out there.
I'm just hopeful that at some point this wager will finally make sense.
This week was the first I was tempted to do a parlay bet with more than seven games. That's where I generally cap the number of matchups I'll pick. I just liked many of the lines this week, but I resisted the temptation and stuck with seven contests I felt had predictable spreads.
Let's see if I can't turn around my fortune. By the way, my record for the season is now a putrid 9-14. Yikes!
Anyway, I've placed another $10 on the line with seven games. If I get them all right, it's a nice $1,071 payday. If I miss even one, then its another 10 spot down the drain.
Here's a breakdown of this week's selected action:
Michigan (4-0) at Michigan State (1-3)
Line: Michigan St. by 3.5.
Television: Noon ET on Big Ten Network
Analysis: This was the easiest game to pick for me this week. I don't think Michigan is going to be looking past anymore opponents after narrowly escaping with a 36-33 victory over Indiana last week. I'm shocked the Spartans are favored in this rivalry game. The linesmaker is giving too much credence to home-field advantage in this situation. Michigan State might be an emotionally drained squad, too. The Spartans have lost their last three games Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin, respectively, by 8 points or less. They can score against Michigan's lackluster defense, but they won't be able to keep the Wolverines out of the end zone, especially with the way they're running the ball. Expect another narrow defeat for the Spartans.
Prediction: Michigan 35, Michigan State 30
Wisconsin (4-0) at Minnesota (3-1)
Line: Minnesota by 2.5.
Television: Noon ET on ESPN and ESPN 360
Analysis: Wisconsin's run game is clicking on all cylinders right now. The Badgers are gaining nearly 200 yards a game on the ground, led by the duo of John Clay and Zach Brown. Minnesota has one big play threat on offense and that's WR Eric Decker. WRs are the easiest position to take out of a game, though. That doesn't bode well for a Minnesota team that could easily be winless this season. Although, Wisconsin hasn't exactly dominated any of the three FBS opponents it's faced this season with its largest margin of victory coming by 8 points. This is another spread where the linesmaker gave too much credence to home-field advantage.
Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 21
NC State (3-1) at Wake Forest (2-2)
Line: Wake Forest by 2.5.
Television: 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Analysis: NC State is starting to roll behind the nation's top-rated defense along with the stellar play of QB Russell Wilson. It took them a couple quarters to get on track against Pitt last week, but once Wilson and the Wolfpack offense started feeling it, they torched a good Panthers defense. Wake Forest hasn't been nearly that efficient on either side of the ball. Take the road dog big in this one. I can see NC State completely dominating the Demon Deacons.
Prediction: NC State 41, Wake Forest 17
Washington (2-2) at Notre Dame (3-1)
Line: Notre Dame by 12.5.
Television: 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Analysis: You'd think I'd learn my lesson. I have included the Notre Dame game in every single parlay I've done this year and I'm yet to guess correctly. Yet, here I am again, being a glutton for punishment. Notre Dame is the better team, but Washington has an "it" factor with QB Jake Locker. Locker is just a winner and never truly quits. He showed a ton of moxy when the Huskies upset USC earlier this season. Of course, they followed it up by losing to a good, but not great, Stanford squad. Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and Co. have too much for Washington to handle, but Locker will keep the margin of victory within 10 points.
Prediction: Notre Dame 35, Washington 27
Georgia Tech (3-1) at Mississippi State (2-2)
Line: Georgia Tech by 6.
Television: None. 7:30 p.m. ET start.
Analysis: Mississippi State defended its home turf admirably, giving LSU all it could handle in Starkville last week. The Tigers avoided the upset, winning 30-26. Mississippi State is going to have another upset in mind Saturday. However, Ga. Tech has one of the best run offenses in the nation as Paul Johnson utilizes the triple-option offense out fo the Wishbone and Flexbone sets. Mississppi State doesn't defend against the run well, giving up 128 yards a game. The Bulldogs will allow much more than 128 in this game.
Prediction: Ga. Tech 31, Mississippi State 14
Auburn (4-0) at Tennessee (3-1)
Line: Tennessee by 2.5.
Television: 7:45 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Analysis: This is going to be a very telling game about both teams. Both squads are fairly young under new coaches and have gotten out to solid starts this season. Tennessee's best game it has played this season might be the 10-point loss it suffered against Florida. Each team is winning with different styles right now. The Vols are playing superior defense, led by All-American safety Eric Berry. Auburn has been surprisingly explosive on offense as QB Chris Todd has stepped up to lead the Tigers to their 4-0 mark. Auburn ranks third nationally in scoring and total offense. The Tigers haven't seen a defense like the Vols', though. Plus, Tennessee has been able to count on the legs of senior RB Montario Hardesty. Hardesty will have a chance for a big day against Auburn's porous run defense that's allowing more than 150 yards rushing a game.
Prediction: Tennessee 27, Auburn 17
Houston (3-0) at UTEP (1-3)
Line: Houston by 15.
Television: None. 9 p.m. ET start.
Analysis: No other non-BCS school has more impressive victories than Houston, yet Boise State and TCU are still the two programs getting most of the BCS busting hype. Boise State beat a not-so-impressive Oregon team. I don't care if Oregon just routed Cal. Cal is a one-dimensional squad that was also overly hyped. The Pac-10 is a weak conference this season. TCU beat Clemson, which isn't a bad win, but it doesn't compare to Houston's victories over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The fact lost in both of Houston's wins over OSU and Tech is the way its defense stepped up. That's right. I said it's defense. Case Keenum and the Houston offense has been nothing short of spectacular and Keenum deserves any and all Heisman hype he receives. However, if it's not for an interception returned for an TD against OSU and a goal line stand against Tech, the Cougars aren't still undefeated. The Cougars also held two of the nation's best offenses to 35 and 28 points, respectively. I'm convinced Houston would beat either Boise State or TCU in a game because its offense is unstoppable and its defense has a knack for big plays. As for dealing with UTEP, call it a trap game if you will, but I think the Cougars pick up what will be the first of three straight victories on the road, and it won't be close.
Prediction: Houston 48, UTEP 13 |
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| Published: Oct 2, 2009 6:14 PM EST |
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