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The NFL Draft is now less than two weeks away. This is about the time things start to clear up on who each team is considering drafting.

 

Not in Detroit. Instead, the ploy of talking to Baylor OT Jason Smith in order to bargain with QB Matthew Stafford goes on. While I wrote in a previous column that the Lions should take Smith, I don’t believe it will happen. I still believe Stafford is the pick.

 

Look for a seven-round mock from me, projecting all 256 picks by next Friday.

 

Let’s get right to it. Here’s my current look at the first round. Two rounds in separate posts to follow.

 

1. Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

I still believe new GM Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz would be sacrificing their careers in three seasons with this pick. Still, they’re going to probably go QB, since apparently that’s where one has to start with building a team. I still say starting in the trenches is a much more brilliant idea.

 

2. Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

No team will be more pumped about Stafford going No. 1 than the Rams. They’ll be more excited than even the Lions. It means the Rams get the premier OT they’ve desired for two seasons.

 

3. Chiefs: Brian Orakpo, OLB, Texas

If the move to the 3-4 is going to be made, then a great pass rusher is needed. Orakpo is the best pass rusher no matter what the defensive scheme is. Aaron Curry is possible, but does he answer a need in the 3-4 like Orakpo does? No. And taking Orakpo here isn’t a reach either. I am iffy on the projection, though. I’m not entirely convinced the Chiefs will make the move to the 3-4, particularly because of the presence of last year’s first-round pick Glenn Dorsey, who doesn’t fit into the scheme at all. At the same time, why bring in LBs like Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel, who are experienced in the 3-4 and haven’t played in a 4-3 in years if you aren’t going to make the change?

 

4. Seahawks: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

This is a value pick that addresses a significant need for Seattle. The Seahawks traded Julian Peterson to Detroit, but replace him with perhaps the best player in the draft. Eugene Monroe might fill a bigger need, but finding a playmaker to replace Peterson has to be high on Seattle’s list of priorities and Curry is the best player in the draft.

 

5. Browns: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

The injury isn’t going to send Crabtree spiraling too far. The Browns are unhappy with Braylon Edwards and have openly shopped him. Even if they keep him, don’t be surprised if they pull the trigger on Crabtree. Some in the organization doubt Edwards is the top-flight receiver they once hoped he could be.

 

6. Bengals: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

The Bengals have plenty of needs, but protecting Carson Palmer needs to be at the top of the list. Monroe is overrated, but still an upgrade at either OT position.

 

7. Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Al Davis loves speed. Maclin is a sexy pick and the perfect replacement for Jerry Porter, who Davis had a lot of admiration for. JaMarcus Russell has a big arm that should complement Maclin nicely.

 

8. Jaguars: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

The Jags are being diligent in their scouting of Sanchez and all signs point to them bringing in the one-year starter. Don’t be surprised to see some movement to this pick or to the Raiders’ selection just ahead of the Jags as teams start bidding for Sanchez’ services.

 

9. Packers: Aaron Maybin, LB, Penn State

The Packers are making a switch to a 3-4 scheme defensively. Maybin can give them a pass rusher off the edge on the weak side. He’s probably the most explosive player coming around offensive tackles in the draft.

 

10. 49ers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

I once projected Raji as the first pick overall. It didn’t work out that way. I still believe he has that type of ability, though. His latest failed drug test hurt him, but he’s not going to fall past the Broncos at 12.

 

11. Bills: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

The Bills have needs in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Ayers is continuing to fly up draft boards and has emerged as a solid option for a team looking for a pass rusher off the edge in the 4-3 scheme.

 

12. Broncos: Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State

Forget about 40 times for a minute. Jenkins is still the most technically sound CB in the draft and technique can make up for plenty in football. I think he's still a CB in the NFL over a FS.

 

13. Redskins: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Washington has had a tough time keeping Jon Jansen healthy during his 11-year career. If he is, he and Chris Samuels make up a fantastic tackle tandem. That's a big if, though, and the 'Skins need to get some insurance. Oher is a natural at RT and has the ability to develop into a solid LT. Don't be surprised if Dan Snyder tries to package a deal to move up and take Mark Sanchez.

 

14. Saints: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

I haven't made it a secret. I don't like Beanie Wells. I question his heart and desire to play. No one can deny his ability, though, and the Saints need a back who can bash out tough yards up the middle. Having a runner like Wells maximizes the talent of Reggie Bush. The Saints don't pick again until the fourth round. They can't delay in adding a key piece to their offense.

 

15. Texans: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

Houston addressed one of their biggest needs at OLB by signing Cato June. They could use help on the DL and Everette Brown is a possibility here to play weakside DE. There are a lot of questions about his ability to do so, though. Harvin would be a luxury here, but he gives a fantastic offensive mind like Gary Kubiak's a chance to be incredibly creative.

 

16. Chargers: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Smith has sunk his own ship. The Bolts need a run-blocking RT and Smith is as good as anyone in this draft at driving his man off the line.

 

17. Jets: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

This writer is not a fan of Jackson's, but he is widely considered the top 3-4 DE available. That'll mean a team running that particular defensive scheme will highly value him.

 

18. Broncos (from CHI): Everette Brown, LB, Florida State

Brown was once considered a top 10 pick, but questions about his size and consistency have plummeted him down draft boards. He could be a good option in the 3-4 at OLB in the same mold of the Steelers' LaMarr Woodley. The Broncos are making the switch to the 3-4 scheme and need to pick up as many players who fit the scheme as possible.

 

19. Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

I’m convinced – like many draftniks are – that the Bucs will find a way to land Freeman one way or another. New coach Raheem Morris has a past with Freeman and the Bucs have not been secretive in their interest in the QB. No team in the NFL needs a starting QB more than the Bucs do, either. However, Freeman is not an immediate answer. The battle to be this year’s starter just got more crowded with the recent signing of Byron Leftwich. Luke McCown and Brian Griese will also figure into the equation. One of those three will not make the team (bet on Griese) if Freeman is the pick and the Bucs need two good years out of whoever wins the battle.

 

20. Lions (from DAL): Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

The Lions are probably hoping one of the top four OTs fall to this spot, but that's a no-go in this projection. The debate here is between Jerry, USC LB Rey Maualuga and Illinois CB Vontae Davis. DT might be the biggest need on the defensive side for Detroit since the trade of Cory Redding to Seattle for LB Julian Peterson.

 

21. Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

Moreno is a perfect fit for what the Eagles want out of their RBs. He's one of the better receivers out of the backfield in this draft class. Everyone says the Eagles need a power back. That simply isn't what Andy Reid likes to do. Moreno is a complete back, though, and could eventually replace Brian Westbrook.

 

22. Vikings: Darius Butler, CB, UConn

I'm moving Butler ahead of Vontae Davis because of his skill set, not because of allegations of drug use on Davis' part. In fact, there is no proof of anyone failing a drug test at the combine. So far, it appears a third-rate website was just trying to make a name for itself. Butler has the best ball skills of any CB in the draft. He's a playmaker in the secondary and teams stopped throwing the ball his way during his senior year at UConn.

 

23. Patriots: Brian Cushing, LB, USC

Cushing is a two-down linebacker, who will struggle in pass coverage. However, he is fantastic at the point of attack and those skills will be on full display in the Patriots' scheme. He's a fitting replacement for the versatile Mike Vrabel, who was traded to Kansas City earlier this offseason.

 

24. Falcons: Clay Matthews, LB, USC

I liked Matthews at No. 15 overall to Houston because of his ability to defend the pass. However, he’ll fall to the Falcons who need to replace both their starting OLBs as Keith Brooking (Dallas) and Michael Boley (Giants) have both departed. Matthews would play opposite Mike Peterson, who was signed as a free agent from Jacksonville. Curtis Lofton will man the middle, giving Atlanta great potential at the position.

 

25. Dolphins: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

Make it three Trojans in a row. Maualuga is one of the most vicious players in this draft. His attitude on the field is similar to Ray Lewis'. He has a habit of overrunning plays, though, and that is the biggest reason he's slipping in this draft. He's a solid fit in the 3-4 and the Dolphins should benefit greatly from having him man the middle of their defense. He's a tackling machine and should be considered a prime candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

 

26. Ravens: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

The Ravens get a hometown boy with the ability to be the premier wide receiver they have always lacked as a franchise. He's underrated right now and the Ravens should consider him a steal.

 

27. Colts: Donald Brown, RB, UConn

Arguably, Brown might be the back geared to make the biggest difference during his rookie season over any other back in the NFL. The Colts have to find a reliable back to take some of the pressure and carries from the suddenly injury-prone Joseph Addai.

 

28. Eagles: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

Longtime RT Jon Runyan is yet to be re-signed and William Thomas also appears on his way out once he becomes a free agent. The Eagles did sign Stacy Andrews, who fits at RT, but Britton could be the future at LT.

 

29. Giants: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State

Robiskie has quietly moved up draft boards. That kind of goes with his personality. He’s a Marvin Harrison-type of worker, who just comes in and does his job. The limelight is not needed for Robiskie to shine. That’s a change the Giants DO need, though.

 

30. Titans: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri

Hood won’t relieve all the pain caused by the departure of Albert Haynesworth, but he’s a step in the right direction. Hood’s stock is rising and he could be off the board as early as 23 to New England.

 

31. Cardinals: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

This is a significant drop for a player once thought to be a potential top 10 pick. Turns out he’s not as athletic as expected and some questions about his character have also been brought up. Still, he’s a playmaker on defense and special teams and will be a welcome addition in both regards by Arizona.

 

32. Steelers: Alex Mack, OC, Cal

Mack could be off the board as high as Pick 24 to Atlanta. He’s the best interior lineman in this draft and fits the Steelers power blocking scheme well.
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