11. Thomas Jones, New York Jets
2006 Stats: 1,209 rush yards, 154 rec. yards, 6 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 21
The once-bust with the Cardinals has quietly turned into a reliable runner, and has put together a string of solid seasons with the Bears. Now a Jet, Thomas Jones figures to benefit from the change in scenery. Cedric Benson cut into his touchdown totals in Chicago, and while the Jets’ offensive line isn’t quite on the same level as the Bears’, it’s by no means a bad situation. Jones should immediately move to the front of the Jets’ hodgepodge running back situation, and should be the team’s feature back. While he might get subbed out on third downs, Jones should see plenty of red-zone touches on New York – something he didn’t get consistently in Chicago last season (due to Cedric Benson).
12. Travis Henry, Denver Broncos
2006 Stats: 1,211 rush yards, 78 rec. yards, 7 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 22
Coach Shanny has been known for unloading his running backs (Clinton Portis, Tatum Bell) over the last few seasons, so for him to go out and get someone is very telling. Henry is, on paper, a perfect fit for the Broncos’ system. The fact that he could rack up 1,200 yards behind a spotty Titans’ line indicates that he still has plenty left in the tank, and Henry in a Broncos’ uniform has huge upside.
13. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
2006 Stats: 1,005 rush yards, 276 rec. yards, 5 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 25
Not a great 2006 for Ronnie Brown, who a lot of people (myself included) thought was headed for a big year with the departure of Ricky Williams. Miami tried to address its offensive line issues this off-season, and whether they did so adequately will determine what kind of year the very talented Brown will have. Injuries are a concern here, because Brown has never been a full-time back (not even at Auburn), and missed 3 games last season. He’s a boom-or-bust fantasy player that ideally should be paired with a solid back like Rudi Johnson in a fantasy backfield.
14. Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens
2006 Stats: 990 rush yards, 156 rec. yards, 6 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 26
Moving to Baltimore is definitely a plus for Willis, who was unhappy and running behind a terrible offensive line in Buffalo. Though I believe Baltimore’s line has become a little overrated, it’s certainly better than Buffalo’s was, and McGahee should be motivated because he’s got something to prove. As always, injuries are a concern for Willis, and he’ll likely miss a game or two in 2007.
15. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
2006 Stats: 941 rush yards, 436 rec. yards, 15 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 8
Last year’s “Where the heck did he come from??” fantasy player, MJD was probably the first 5-foot-6 “goal-line” back in NFL history. While his role in the offense expanded as the season progresses, Jones-Drew earned his spot in the fantasy top-10 by getting into the endzone. The question now is whether he can repeat that performance. It’s always dangerous to get too high on fantasy players who make their living on touchdowns, because it doesn’t take much change for their total to significantly drop. Plus, Fred Taylor is still on the Jags, and likely to continue to see a significant number of carries. Overall, I like MJD this season, but I’m not going crazy over him and wouldn’t feel 100% comfortable starting him in a 10-team fantasy league.
16. Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals
2006 Stats: 1,159 rush yards, 217 rec. yards, 6 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 20
Edge plodded through 2006, and had some downright embarrassing games in the process – all while affirming the notion that maybe he really just was a product of Indy’s system (at least after the knee injuries). Still, his season wasn’t a total disaster, as he did stay healthy and posted over 1,300 total yards. With the Cardinals’ offense maturing, the passing game should be able to take some pressure off Edge, giving him a chance to be a little more effective this season.
17. Deuce McAllister, New Orleans Saints
2006 Stats: 1,057 rush yards, 198 rec. yards, 10 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 13
After a couple of injury-riddled seasons and the addition of Reggie Bush, Deuce nearly fell off the fantasy radar in 2006. But Deuce proved he was far from done, finishing among the top-15 fantasy backs (ahead of Bush), and posting his most consistent season in years. A year later, and people are still writing off Deuce – but why? Nothing’s changed in the Saints running game, and though Reggie has a year of experience under his belt, the dual-back system worked so well last season that I can’t imagine Sean Payton tinkering with it too much. Deuce should once again be the focus of the ground game, and should once again see the red zone carries – meaning he’ll once again be a solid fantasy option.
18. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints
2006 Stats: 558 rush yards, 748 rec. yards, 9 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 17
This was true last year, and it’s probably going to be true again: If you’re a knowledgeable fantasy owner, Reggie Bush will almost certainly NOT be on your team. In all but the most knowledgeable leagues, he’s simply drafted way too high to even be a consideration. While Bush provided some highlight-reel plays as a rookie, he’s clearly got a long ways to go in becoming an every-down back; and with the team coming off a trip to the NFC Title Game, there’s just no incentive for them to force-feed the ball to Reggie Bush. Don’t get me wrong, Bush is still a valuable fantasy player because of his receiving prowess, but I’m not sold that his numbers are even going to improve this season.
19. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins
2006 Stats: 523 rush yards, 170 rec. yards, 7 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 36
A pre-season injury made Clinton Portis a potential steal in the second round of many fantasy drafts last season, but that pick backfired severely, as Portis never could get healthy. To make matters worse, he was thoroughly outperformed by backup Ladell Betts, and his job as the feature back could very well be in jeopardy. But with all that said, he’s still Clinton Portis, and if healthy he’s still a top-10 back. In 2007, he’s a questionable fantasy starter, but a very nice pick as a #3 back.
20. Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2006 Stats: 798 rush yards, 196 rec. yards, 1 total TD
2006 Fantasy Ranking: 39
Burning question about Cadillac Williams: When you’re the feature back on your team, is a 1 touchdown, sub-1,000 yard season best described as a “disaster” or a “catastrophe”? I vote the latter. The fact that Caddy was a second round pick in most fantasy drafts last season means there’s a huge “bitterness factor” going here, and I’m sure he’s not even a consideration for many owners in 2007. But still, he’s the feature back on a team who’s offensive line and passing game could not possibly be worse than they were, and we know Caddy is capable of running the ball. A lot of injury risk, a lot of ineffectiveness risk, but there’s definitely some upside here.
